Data compiled since the New York GOP primary shows that billionaire Donald Trump’s popular vote total in 2016 in states that have voted so far significantly exceeds the vote totals that Mitt Romney, the 2012 nominee, had in those states in total.
All in all, in the contests that have been had so far in 2016, Trump towers over Romney—having won more than 2 million more votes in the 2016 GOP primaries. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), the next closest vote-getter to Trump this cycle, falls just under 300,000 votes short of Romney’s totals in the 2012 cycle.
In total, Trump has received 8,776,586 votes so far this year in states that have already held primaries or caucuses or conventions. In those same states in 2012, Romney received 6,654,029 votes—a whopping 2,122,557 votes less than Donald Trump. That means Trump has gotten a 31.79 percent increase over Romney’s totals.
Meanwhile, Cruz, in states that have voted already in 2016 has received an impressive 6,452,032 votes. While admirable, that’s still 201,977 votes less than Romney’s 2012 totals in those states—a decrease of 3.04 percent from Romney’s 2012 votes.
The analysis shows that of the nearly 40 contests so far, Trump’s 2016 vote totals have demolished Romney’s 2012 vote totals in most places.
In Alabama, for instance, Trump’s 373,721 votes in 2016 were 193,385 votes more than Romney’s 180,336 votes in 2012. In Arizona, Trump won 47,576 more votes than Romney. Trump beat Romney by more than 300,000 votes in the swing state of Florida—which Romney lost to President Obama in the general election in 2012—and Trump similarly outperformed the former Massachusetts Governor in the critical state of Ohio by more than the margin Romney lost Ohio to Obama in the general election. Trump, in the 2016 primary, won 713,404 votes in Ohio—252,573 more than Romney’s 460,831 in the 2012 primary. Romney lost Ohio to Obama in the general election in 2012 by only 166,214 votes. Trump even beat Romney in his home state of Massachusetts by more than 46,000 votes.
In Trump’s home state of New York, too, the real estate developer finished well more than four times better than Romney did four years earlier. Romney in 2012 only received 118,912 votes in the Empire State while Trump in 2016 received 515,091 votes.
The analysis shows national competitiveness on Trump’s part, meaning that like Romney—and better than Romney so far—Trump can win everywhere in the country, rather than just regionally like Cruz.
Trump outperformed Romney in the following states and territories: Alabama, Alaska,Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia and Wisconsin. It’s worth noting that Idaho went from a caucus in 2012 to a primary in 2016, so Trump probably got a boost in turnout due to that shift in system.
States and territories where Romney’s 2012 vote totals outperformed Trump’s 2016 totals were: Washington, D.C., Utah, North Carolina, Kentucky, Puerto Rico, Texas, Vermont, Wyoming, the Northern Mariana Islands and the U.S. Virgin Islands. It’s worth noting that D.C. went from a primary in 2012 to a convention in 2016, something that significantly decreases turnout. Kentucky went from a primary in 2012 to a caucus in 2016. Utah, a Mormon stronghold very favorable to Romney, also went from a primary in 2012 to a caucus in 2016. And while Romney did better than Trump in North Carolina, Trump still won the state back on March 15. What’s more, part of Trump finishing in 2016 lower than Romney in 2012 in the state of Texas is a result of Cruz being in the race—and being the U.S. Senator from Texas.
A Romney spokeswoman didn’t respond to a request for comment. Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, who appeared on Breitbart News Saturday this weekend, made the point that Trump doing significantly better than Romney did—while Cruz isn’t doing better—is a good sign for the businessman should he make it to the general election.
“If Ted Cruz were to be nominated, there is no state that Mitt Romney lost last cycle that Ted Cruz can win. That’s not the case with Donald Trump,” Lewandowski said. He argued Trump could potentially win Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, New York, California, and Massachusetts in the general election, when Romney couldn’t in 2012. “We have the ability to expand the map,” Lewandowski said.
Cruz did finish higher than Romney in several states when comparing the Texas senator’s 2016 vote totals up against the former Massachusetts Governor’s 2012 totals, but not nearly as many as Trump did.
Cruz beat Romney in the following contests: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Again, with this one, the shift in Idaho’s system from 2012 caucuses to 2016 primaries probably benefitted Cruz just like it probably helped Trump’s totals versus Romney’s totals.
There are several more contests, however, where Romney’s 2012 numbers are much greater than Cruz’s 2016 finishes. They include: Arizona, Florida, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Puerto Rico, South Carolina, Utah, Vermont, Nevada, the Northern Mariana and U.S. Virgin Islands.
Cruz has forged an alliance with Ohio Gov. John Kasich in upcoming states, in several of which including Oregon, Indiana and New Mexico they plan to collude to try to stop Trump. It’s unclear if they’ll be successful, especially if Trump continues on this tear he’s been on all year.
Breitbart News compiled this data analysis from information purchased from Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. That data, available at USElectionAtlas.org, is widely used by academics and media organizations including the New York Times, the Economist, Harvard, Columbia, Cornell, and many more reputable organizations. Technically, Breitbart News did not include Colorado in these totals for Trump, Cruz or Romney since voters in Colorado were not afforded an opportunity to be heard at a caucus or primary.
This is the second in a multi-part series in Breitbart News’ election metadata analysis. The first examined a massive spike in GOP primary turnout in 2016.
Hear an interview about this story with SiriusXM host Stephen K. Bannon on Breitbart News Daily: