A newly-released Arizona poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden holds a slim lead over President Donald Trump for November’s presidential election in the swing state.
The HighGround Public Affairs survey found Biden, the presumptive Democrat nominee, at 47 percent support among respondents, with President Trump at 45.3 percent. The “some other candidate” option garnered 4.3 percent, and 3.5 percent said they didn’t know which candidate they support, the poll shows.
The poll, conducted between May 18 and May 22, comprised of 400 likely voters, and has a 4.9 percent margin of error. “The partisan advantage was set at +4% GOP based on previous election trends and expected Presidential Election turnout,” HighGround Public Affairs notes.
“In the wake of the most challenging and arguably worst three months of his term, President Trump has shown that he can remain competitive in Arizona,” said HighGround, Inc. Senior Vice President of Research and Strategy Paul Bentz. He said the virtual tie will be decided by the performance of the candidates’ “turnout game”:
Despite several key swing constituencies not going in his favor and a deficit in Maricopa County, the state remains a ‘toss up’ because of his team’s laser focus on his key audiences. Plus, there is still an additional 4 to 8% of the electorate up for grabs. As this boils down to a turnout game, we will need to keep our eyes on voter registration and enthusiasm during the primary over the next few months.
One question on the survey asked: “If you blame anyone for the spread of the Coronavirus in the United States, who do you think is most to blame?” The question was open-ended; it did not give any answer choices. President Trump received the most blame, from 29.3% of respondents. In second was the response “Don’t Know/No One” at 25.3%, and then China, with 20.3%.
In a separate poll published last week, figures show Biden leads President Trump by seven points in Arizona.
The OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) survey found Biden at 50 percent and the president at 43 percent.
A Democrat presidential nominee has not won Arizona since former President Clinton did in 1996.
President Trump won Arizona in the 2016 election against Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.