2020: New State Polls Show Trouble for Trump, Republicans in November

Presumptive Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump arrives on stage on the first day of the Republican National Convention on July 18, 2016 at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. The Republican Party opened its national convention, kicking off a four-day political jamboree that will anoint billionaire Donald Trump as its …
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New polls show trouble for President Donald Trump’s re-election prospects, as well as for Republicans wishing to take the House and hold the Senate in 2020.

While the election is still more than four months away, the polls indicate that Trump and his party face an uphill battle.

Polls are not infallible, and it is possible that these results are influenced by a growing climate of fear in the country: conservatives are afraid to tell anyone what they believe because of the risk of losing their jobs or exposing themselves to physical danger.

The Trump campaign has also accused some mainstream media outlets of using unreliable polls to suppress enthusiasm among his voters.

However, the fact that many of the polls seem to be headed in the same direction has many Republicans worried.

One poll shows Trump 16 points behind Biden in Michigan, for example — a state Trump won in 2016. Another shows Trump behind by 14 points in New Mexico — a state that the Trump campaign hopes will be competitive in November.

Polls in Arizona and Florida also look bad for the president. Arizona is particularly worrying to Republicans, because Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) faces a tough challenge from Democrat Mark Kelly, a former astronaut and the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-AZ), who was severely wounded in a mass shooting in Tucson in January 2011.

Biden has even edged ahead of Trump in Arizona in one recent poll — and that polls also shows Jon Ossoff, who has tried and failed to win a place in Congress in the past, slightly ahead of incumbent Sen. David Perdue (R-GA). In Iowa, a state that Trump won handily in 2016, Trump barely holds a lead over Biden, who came in fourth in the Iowa caucuses.

If these trends continue, Republicans could face a sweep in November, losing control of the Senate and the White House and leaving Democrats with no check on their power, other than the conservative jury — which recently ruled in favor of the left in the Bostock v. Clayton County case, barring discrimination based on sexual preference or gender identity.

2020 is also a Census year, meaning that strong Democratic turnout could also see Republicans lose state legislatures. Democrats in control of state legislatures could redraw congressional districts to consign Republicans to the minority for years.

Joel B. Pollak is Senior Editor-at-Large at Breitbart News and the host of Breitbart News Sunday on Sirius XM Patriot on Sunday evenings from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. ET (4 p.m. to 7 p.m. PT). His new book, RED NOVEMBER, is available for pre-order. He is a winner of the 2018 Robert Novak Journalism Alumni Fellowship. Follow him on Twitter at @joelpollak.

This article was updated to include the latest poll from Iowa.


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