Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden and Green Party presidential candidate Cornell West in a hypothetical three-way race for the White House, according to a national Emerson College poll.
The poll, released Saturday, shows that 42 percent of registered voters would vote for Trump in that scenario, placing him a point above Biden at 41 percent. West takes five percent of the respondents, and another thirteen percent are undecided.
A hypothetical head-to-head matchup shows Trump with a razor-thin .7 percentage point lead without rounding, but for rounding purposes, they are tied at 44 percent. Twelve percent of respondents are up for grabs in that scenario.
Comically, Emerson – which has one of the best marks of all pollsters on FiveThirtyEight – also sampled a three-way race between Trump, Biden, and pop superstar Taylor Swift, which shows that Trump’s base of support is more potent than Biden’s, according to Spencer Kimball, executive director of polling at Emerson College.
Trump remains at 42 percent, while the “Love Story” hitmaker steals support from Biden as he drops to 39 percent, and she fares better than West with eight percent.
“The Swift test suggests that Biden’s support is softer than Trump’s, whose support is more locked-in,” Kimball said. “Biden is more vulnerable to third-party options like West, who appears to appeal more to Biden’s voter base than Trump’s.”
This portion of the poll included 1000 registered, including 465 likely GOP primary voters. All samples were collected between August 16-17, and the credibility interval for the total sample is plus or minus three percent.
The poll also gauged the Republican presidential primary, finding that Trump maintains a colossal advantage with 56 percent support. Former Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R-FL) support has dropped off 11 points since June 20, when he registered at 21 percent. While he looks to stop the hemorrhaging, he finds himself tied with the surging 37-year-old entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at ten percent. Ramaswamy is up eight points since June.
NATIONAL POLL
2024 GOP Primary
Trump 56%
DeSantis 10%
Ramaswamy 10%
Pence 3%
Christie 3%
Scott 2%
Haley 2%
11% undecidedhttps://t.co/FwyN8GcqJv— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) August 19, 2023
Kimball noted DeSantis supporters are defecting to Ramaswamy:
Ramaswamy has improved among Republican voters with a postgraduate degree, a group that has previously been part of the DeSantis’ base. In the June Emerson poll, 38% of postgraduates supported DeSantis in the primary, which has dropped to 14% this month. Instead, 17% support Ramaswamy and 32% Trump.
Seven points separate them from former Vice President Mike Pence and former Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) at three percent. Former Gov. Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) tie at two percent, while conservative radio host Larry Elder and former Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR) round out the field with one percent. Just over one in ten are undecided.
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