Poll: Donald Trump Takes Two-Point Lead over Joe Biden in Wisconsin

trump leads biden
Mandel NGAN / AFP, Win McNamee/Getty Images
Nick Gilbertson

Former President Donald Trump holds a two-point advantage over President Joe Biden in a hypothetical presidential general election match-up in Wisconsin, according to an Emerson College poll. This marks another concerning Rust Belt state poll for Biden.

The survey, published on October 12, shows that 42 percent of Wisconsin voters would back Trump in a rematch of the 2020 election with Biden, who garners 40 percent of the response. Eleven percent would support “someone else,” while eight percent are undecided. 

This marks a statistical tie, as it is within the ± 4.2 percent credibility interval, but considering 43 percent of those polled voted for Biden in the 2020 election, and 42 percent voted for Trump, the survey highlights a three-point swing in public opinion in Trump’s favor. 

Also troubling for Biden is his approval rating among Wisconsinites. A mere 34 percent of voters approve of his performance as president, while 49 percent disapprove, placing him 15 points underwater in the Badger State. 

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Among independent voters, Biden holds a slim lead with 33 percent of the response to Trump’s 31 percent. Another 19 percent of unaffiliated voters would back another candidate, while 17 percent are undecided. 

The poll also gauged if Trump and Biden supporters could “think of anything” either candidate “could do or say in the next several months that would make [them] choose not to support him.” 

The numbers for both men were nearly identical, with 51 percent saying Trump could not do or say anything to deter them from backing him, versus 24 percent who say it is possible. Similarly, 50 percent of Biden backers believe they will stick with him regardless of what he says or does, while 23 percent say he could potentially drive them away with his remarks or actions. 

Emerson College polling sampled 532 Wisconsin voters between October 1 and 4, and the credibility interval is ± 4.2 percent.

This marks one of several Rust Belt state polls released this week that are problematic for Biden heading into 2024. A separate Emerson College poll out of Pennsylvania shows Trump with a nearly double-digit advantage over Biden at 45 percent to the Democrat’s 36 percent. Another eleven percent would back another candidate, and eight percent are undecided. 

The Pennsylvania poll includes samples from 430 registered voters in Pennsylvania between October 1 and 4, and the credibility interval is ± 4.7 percent. 

Another poll, conducted from October 2 to 8 by the Michigan-based Marketing Research Group (MRG), shows that Trump leads Biden in the Wolverine state by seven points at 42 percent to 35 percent, respectively, when leaners are accounted for. 

However, Trump trails Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) in a hypothetical match-up in the MRG poll at a margin of 40 percent to 46 percent. 

“The waning support for President Biden from his base should be concerning to his party,” noted MRG owner Jenell Leonard. “It conveys they no longer have faith in their candidate; they lack the confidence that he can win re-election. This is a candidate problem, not a party problem.”

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That poll sampled 600 likely voters, and the margin of error is ± four percentage points.

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