Poll: Donald Trump Takes 9 Point Lead over Joe Biden in Pennsylvania

Former President Donald Trump speaks in Clinton Township, Mich., Wednesday, Sept. 27, 2023
Mike Mulholland/AP

Former President Donald Trump holds a nearly double-digit lead over President Joe Biden in a hypothetical head-to-head presidential race in Pennsylvania, according to an Emerson College poll. 

The poll, published on Wednesday, shows that 45 percent of registered voters in the Quaker State back Trump, placing him 9 points ahead of Biden at 36 percent. Eleven percent of voters would back another candidate, and eight percent are undecided. Notably, 43 percent of respondents voted for Biden in 2020, while 42 percent supported Trump. 

Trump has a very strong lead among independents, taking 44 percent of the response to Biden’s 14 percent. Another 42 percent of the demographic are either undecided or would vote for someone else. 

Biden’s approval rating in Pennsylvania is deep underwater. Just 31 percent of registered voters give him positive marks, while 51 percent disapprove, giving him a net rating of -20. Another 18 percent have neutral feelings or do not have an opinion about the president. 

The poll asked Trump supporters if they could “think of anything that Donald Trump could do or say in the next several months that would make [them] choose not to support him for president in 2024?” 

Exactly half of Trump supporters said there is nothing he could do or say to make them change their minds, while 22 percent said yes, and 28 percent were unsure.

Emerson asked the same of Biden voters, finding that 53 percent will stick with him no matter what he does or says. Conversely, just 17 percent say there is something he “could do or say in the next several months that would make you choose not to support him.” Thirty percent were unsure. 

The polling outfit also gauged a potential U.S. Senate race between Republican Dave McCormick and Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA). Despite Trump’s success, Casey leads McCormick by eight points, as they register at 41 percent and 33 percent, respectively. More than one in four voters are either undecided or would back someone else.  

Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball provided an analysis on the different trends in the potential Senate and presidential races. 

“Biden leads Trump 44% to 39% among voters under 40, however those under 30 within this group break for Trump 45% to 39%. Conversely, Casey leads McCormick 46% to 22% among voters under 40, and leads 42% to 23% with voters under 30,” he stated. 

“An additional group that splits their ticket include voters whose highest level of education is a high school degree or less: these voters break for Trump 53% to 27%, while Casey leads this group 36% to 33% over McCormick,” added Kimball. 

The poll includes samples from 430 registered voters in Pennsylvania between October 1-4, and the credibility interval is plus or minus 4.7 percent. It comes on the heels of a Marketing Resource Group poll that indicated Trump holds a seven-point lead over Biden in a potential general election. 


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