Poll: Trump Towers over Biden in Montana, Sheehy in Striking Distance of Tester in Hypothetical Races

In this July 5, 2018, photo, President Donald Trump turns to the cheering crowd as he arri
Carolyn Kaster/AP Photo
Nick Gilbertson

Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden by 21 points in a hypothetical presidential race in Montana, while businessman and Navy SEAL veteran Tim Sheehy, a Republican, is within striking distance of Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) in a hypothetical Senate race, per a poll.

The Emerson College Poll, published on Tuesday, shows that 49 percent of registered voters in the Treasure State back Trump, while Biden follows at 28 percent in a hypothetical 2020 rematch. Of the remaining respondents, sixteen percent would back another candidate, while just seven percent are undecided. 

Moreover, Biden’s approval rating among all poll participants, not just registered voters, comes in at just 22 percent, while 63 percent disapprove of his performance.

The poll asked Trump and Biden backers if their preferred candidate “could do or say in the next several months that would make [them] choose not to support him for president in 2024?” 

A majority of those who would plan to vote for Trump, 53 percent, say he cannot do anything that would make them not support him, while 48 percent of Biden voters say the same of him. Just over one in ten Trump backers think he could do or say something that prompts them to change their mind, while fifteen percent of Biden supporters say he could potentially make them vote for someone else.

The poll also gauged a hypothetical Senate race match-up between the vulnerable Tester and Sheehy, who has endorsements from a number of Republican senators, including National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines (R-MT).

While Tester, who is serving his third term as a senator, garners 39 percent of support, Sheehy — a political newcomer — takes 35 percent of the response. Another six percent of voters would back someone else, while one in five respondents is undecided. The gap between them falls within the poll’s credibility interval for registered voters, which is plus or minus 4.6 percent.

“There is a significant gender divide among Montana voters,” noted Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball. “Tester leads Sheehy among women by 16 points, 46% to 30%, whereas Sheehy leads among men by eight points, 40% to 32%.”

Notably, Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) is reportedly weighing launching a bid for Tester’s seat. In August, former President Donald Trump told Rosendale he would not back him in a primary, as Breitbart News noted.

Emerson College polling sampled 499 Montanans, including 447 registered voters, between October 1-4. The credibility interval for the total sample is plus or minus 4.4 percent, while it is 4.6 percent among registered voters. 

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