Former President Donald Trump would win the electoral college over President Joe Biden, but Biden would trounce Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), according to an analysis from Stack Data Strategy among 15,205 registered voters nationwide.
The in-depth survey, conducted from October 13 to November 3 and released in Politico on Monday, found that Trump would garner 292 electoral votes and win back the White House in a hypothetical general election matchup with Biden, who would secure 246 electoral votes. However, Biden would narrowly win the popular vote, 49 percent to 48 percent:
SHOCK POLL: “According to new research from Stack Data Strategy, Trump would today beat Biden in the Electoral College, 292 to 246…Trump’s projected victory is based on him winning the four states that were decided by the closest margin in 2020: AZ, GA, PA, and WI.”
First in…
— Jason Miller (@JasonMillerinDC) November 13, 2023
Trump also beats Vice President Kamala Harris and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) in hypothetical matchups.
Vice President Kamala Harris stands on stage with California Gov. Gavin Newsom at the conclusion of an event at the IBEW-NECA Joint Apprenticeship Training Center in San Leandro, Calif., Wednesday, Sept. 8, 2021 (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster).
In a hypothetical race between Biden and DeSantis, Biden obliterates the Florida governor in a landslide. Biden carries 359 electoral votes to DeSantis’s 179 in this scenario.
President Joe Biden speaks in a neighborhood impacted by Hurricane Ian at Fisherman’s Pass in Fort Myers, Florida, on October 5, 2022, as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis looks on (OLIVIER DOULIERY/AFP via Getty Images).
Taking a deeper look at a race between the leading candidates, Trump and Biden, Trump takes four states he lost in 2020 but won in 2016: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Conversely, Biden holds on to Michigan, which Trump won in 2016. These states were pivotal in deciding the last two presidential elections and will be instrumental in determining the next commander-in-chief.
In the Stack Data survey, Trump wins Arizona by 1.4 percentage points, 48.7 to Biden’s 47.3 percent, with 4 percent backing another candidate. In 2020, Biden won the Grand Canyon State by just .3 percent.
Trump holds the support of 50.3 percent of registered voters in Georgia, giving him a 3.3 percent advantage over Biden in the Peach State as he draws 47.1 percent, according to the poll. Another 2.6 percent would back someone else. Biden won Georgia by less than 12,000 votes three years ago.
Trump has a 2.3 percent lead over Biden in Pennsylvania, which Biden won by 2.2 percent in 2020. The 45th president registers at 49.6 percent, and Biden garners 47.3 percent. Just over three percent of voters would vote for a third candidate.
In Wisconsin, where less than one percent decided Biden as the winner in 2020, Biden trails by one percent. He garners 47.9 percent of the response to Trump’s 48.9 percent, while 3.2 percent would back someone else.
The poll also shows Trump beating Biden in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, which went blue in 2020, by a margin of 48.8 percent to 46.9 percent, with 4.3 percent backing someone else.
Suppose Trump is the nominee and was to maintain all of his 2020 wins while adding Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and the electoral vote from Nebraska’s Second Congressional District into the win column in 2024. In that case, he would reach 292 electoral votes, eclipsing the 270 mark needed to win.
In Michigan, Biden narrowly draws more response than Trump in the Stack poll, at 48.7 percent to 48 percent. Another 3.2 percent would vote for a different option. Similarly, Trump trails Biden in Nevada by 1.4 percent. Biden takes 48.4 percent, while 47 percent back Trump.
The 45th president ends up winning Nevada in this poll when independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Green Party candidate Cornel West are included on the ballot, according to Politico.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a presidential hopeful and a prominent voice in the anti-vaccine movement, appears before the House Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government, Thursday, July 20, 2023, on Capitol Hill in Washington. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP)
Professor of Philosophy and Christian Practice at the Union Theological Seminary Cornel West speaks during a press conference (ZACH GIBSON/AFP via Getty Images).
“Our research is the largest exercise of its kind so far this cycle and we can confidently say that as things currently stand, if Donald Trump is selected as the Republican candidate, he is likely to win,” Joe Bedell, head of Stack Strategy in North America, said.
“Despite recent calls for change, our polling also shows that neither party would benefit from a change in candidate, President Trump would beat both of Biden’s possible replacements by an even greater margin,” he added.
Stack Data Strategy accurately forecasted the House of Representatives majority in the midterm elections.
“Stack Data Strategy, working with the National Republican Congressional Committee, were [sic] one of the most accurate forecasters of the 2022 House of Representatives election, correctly predicting the number of Republican seats within one of the final total,” a release shared by Politico noted:
This is big. When I was at NRCC, Stack Data had the most accurate prediction of the 2022 midterms. https://t.co/uIrsUOghEZ
— Mike Berg (@MikeKBerg) November 13, 2023
This latest analysis of the six swing states comes on the heels of three polls released last week from the New York Times/Siena College, Emerson College, and Bloomberg News/Morning Consult, which show Trump with an advantage over Biden in the majority of these states.
The average of the polls’ head-to-head races among likely voters and registered voters shows Trump leading Biden by 3.7 percent in Arizona, 7 percent in Georgia, 1 percent in Michigan, 5.7 percent in Nevada, and 3.7 percent in Pennsylvania. He trails in Wisconsin by .3 percent.
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