Trump Bests Biden in Key Swing States in 3rd Poll This Week

Former President Donald Trump arrives to speak at a campaign rally in Hialeah, Fla., Wedne
AP Photo/Lynne Sladky
Nick Gilbertson

Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in six of seven crucial swing states, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll, mirroring a trend in two separate polls published Sunday and Thursday. 

In hypothetical head-to-head matchups, Trump leads Biden to varying degrees in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while they tie in Michigan. 

When independent presidential candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West are added to the pool, Trump maintains his leads over Biden. However, the president takes a slim advantage in Michigan. 

The poll finds that Trump holds a four-point lead over Biden in a hypothetical head-to-head race in Arizona. Of the 800 registered voter respondents, 46 percent would back Trump, and 42 percent would support Biden. Another four percent of Arizona voters wouldn’t vote, while eight percent are undecided. 

The margin of error (MOE) in Arizona is plus or minus three percentage points. 

Trump maintains a four-point advantage over Biden when West and Kennedy enter the fray. Trump’s support slides to 40 percent, while Biden sees an equal loss of support to 36 percent. Kennedy takes eleven percent of the response, while West garners one percent in the Grand Canyon State. Nine percent are undecided in the scenario. 

In Georgia, Trump holds a seven-point lead over Biden in a two-man race at 48 percent and 41 percent, respectively. Four percent would sit the election out, and seven percent would be undecided. When the field expands, so does Trump’s lead. In a four-way race, Trump takes 43 percent of support, while Biden falls to 34 percent. Ten percent of the respondents back Kennedy, one percent support West, while three percent would back another candidate, and six percent are undecided. 

The Georgia survey included responses from 803 participants taken from October 30-November 4, and the MOE is plus or minus three percent.

Trump holds a three-point advantage over Biden in Nevada. He takes 46 percent of the vote in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup to Biden’s 43 percent. Another six percent would not vote, and five percent are undecided. 

The 45th president’s lead grows to four points when Kennedy and West are included on the ballot, taking 39 percent of the response to Biden’s 35 percent. Kennedy follows with eleven percent, and West rounds out the field with one percent. Another three percent would support someone else, and eight percent would be undecided in this scenario in the Silver State. 

The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll sampled 437 registered voters in Nevada from October 30-November 7, and the MOE is plus or minus five percentage points. 

Trump boasts his most significant lead over Biden in North Carolina at 48 percent to 39 percent in a two-man race. Nine percent are undecided, and five percent would sit the election out. Trump’s lead is unchanged in a deeper race, as 42 percent support the 45th president and 33 percent back Biden. Nine percent of the 702 registered North Carolina voters support Kennedy, while two percent get behind West. Three percent prefer someone else, and nine percent are unsure who they would back.

North Carolina voters were surveyed from October 30-November 3, and the MOE sits at plus or minus four percentage points. 

In Pennsylvania, 47 percent of voters rally behind Trump in a contest with only Biden, who draws 44 percent of support. Five percent of voters would not vote in the election if these were their options, and five percent would be undecided. Trump leads the pack in a four-way race, with 41 percent, while Biden comes in second at 38 percent and Kennedy follows with 8 percent. Another one percent of respondents back West, while three percent would back someone else, and 7 percent are undecided. 

Morning Consult sampled 805 registered voters from October 30-November 2. It has a plus or minus three percent MOE.

Trump also narrowly leads Biden in Wisconsin in a straight-up race and a deeper field among 675 registered voters. Of the respondents, 47 percent back Trump in a head-to-head matchup with Biden, who garners 46 percent of the response. His lead grows to two points with Kennedy and West in the field. In that scenario, 38 percent would vote for Trump, 36 percent would back Biden, 13 percent would support Kennedy, and 2 percent would back West. Nine percent are undecided. 

The MOE is plus or minus four percent, and the survey was conducted from October 30-November 6. 

Finally, Biden and Trump are in a dead heat in Michigan at 43 percent apiece. Another five percent would sit the election out, and nine percent are unsure who they would back. Biden holds a narrow lead at 38 percent to Trump’s 37 percent when the field is expanded to four candidates. Kennedy and West garner ten percent and two percent, respectively. Another ten percent are undecided. 

The survey sampled 700 registered voters in Michigan from October 30-November 3, and the MOE registers at plus or minus four percent. 

The swing state surveys follow a trend in two other recent polls. A New York Times/Sienna College Survey published Sunday showed Trump leading Biden by eleven in Nevada, six in Georgia, five in Arizona and Michigan, and four percent in Pennsylvania. Biden led by two in Wisconsin. 

An Emerson College poll released Thursday showed Trump ahead in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona among likely voters in each state. They tied in Wisconsin, while Biden had the advantage in Michigan. 

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