National Polls: Trump Towers over Haley, DeSantis in Head-to-Heads; Leads Full GOP Field with Two-Thirds Support

Donald Trump
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Nick Gilbertson

Two polls released on Tuesday show former President Donald Trump dominating the Republican primary field, crushing his nearest opponents in hypothetical head-to-head races in one poll and leading a field of six with two-thirds of support in another. 

The surveys come ahead of the fourth Republican presidential debate scheduled for Wednesday, which Trump will not attend, as the Iowa Caucuses are less than a month-and-a-half away. 

A Messenger/Harris poll among registered Republican voters published Tuesday shows Trump dominating hypothetical head-to-head races with former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL).

In a match-up between Trump and Haley, the 45th president cleans up with 76 percent of support to her 19 percent. DeSantis fares marginally better than Haley but still gets trounced by Trump in a two-man race. Trump leads with 73 percent, while DeSantis takes 21 percent. 

The poll did not include data on the horse race of the entire primary field, though the Messenger noted Trump registered at 68 percent in its last poll.

The survey also found Trump at 47 percent nationally among registered voters in a race versus Biden, who trails with 40 percent while 14 percent are undecided. For comparison, “Biden led DeSantis, 41%-40%, while 19% were undecided. Haley led Biden, 41%-37%, while 22% were undecided,” noted the Messenger’s Matt Holt. 

With undecided leaners included, Trump’s lead is 53 percent to 47 percent.

From November 27 to December 1, Harris X sampled 2,018 registered voters, including 767 Republicans nationally, with the margin of error (MOE) for the whole sample being ± 2.2 percentage points. 

In a separate poll released in Morning Consult’s running Republican primary tracker on Tuesday, exactly two in three potential Republican primary voters backed Trump in a field of six remaining GOP candidates. 

The survey of 3,526 potential GOP primary voters from December 1 to 3 shows that Trump is at 66 percent of support, giving him a 53-point lead over his nearest competitor, DeSantis, at 13 percent.  

Haley is hot on DeSantis’s trail for second place with ten percent, while entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) round out the field at six percent and three percent, respectively. 

Former Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR), the only other declared candidate still in the field, did not secure a percentage point, and neither did Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), who suspended his campaign on Monday. One percent of respondents prefer someone not listed. 

When Trump’s remaining rivals’ numbers are combined, his 66 percent still more than doubles their 32 percent of support. The MOE is ± two percentage points. 

Morning Consult also gauged a hypothetical head-to-head race between Biden and Trump among 5,800 registered voters nationally, finding the two are in a dead heat at 43 percent. Ten percent would back someone else, and four percent would be undecided. The field dates were December 1 to 3, and the MOE is ≠ one percentage point for this portion of the poll. 

The polls come as the fourth Republican primary debate will occur Wednesday night in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Four candidates — DeSantis, Haley, Ramaswamy, and Christie — will compete, as Breitbart News noted.

The field peaked with more than a dozen candidates at one point over the summer, but as time progressed and the field has consolidated, Trump has seen his support grow while his challengers have not, spare a modest, months-long climb to double digits for Haley. 

Trump has gained ten points of support compared to a Morning Consult survey published on July 11, showing him at 56 percent support nationally. DeSantis registered at 17 percent in that poll, meaning he has slipped four points since then compared to the latest survey. 

Ramaswamy was at eight percent in the July 11 poll. Former Vice President Mike Pence, who has since dropped out, was at seven percent, and Haley was at three percent. Christie is unchanged from when he pinged at three percent in July. 

In other words, Trump has seen the most considerable boost of any candidate as the field has been cut in half over recent months. 

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