Poll: Maryland Republican Larry Hogan Enters Senate Race with Commanding Lead over Democrats

Larry Hogan
Ronda Churchill/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Nick Gilbertson

Former Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) has double-digit leads against both of the top Democrat Senate candidates in blue Maryland less than two weeks after launching his bid for retiring Sen. Ben Cardin’s (D-MD) seat, according to a poll.

The survey — conducted by “longtime Hogan pollsters Ragnar Research Partners,” as Punchbowl News first reported — shows Hogan with substantial edges over Rep. David Tone (D-MD) and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks in hypothetical general election races.

In a match-up between Trone — the founder of Total Wines & More — and Hogan, the former governor leads with 49 percent of support to Trone’s 33 percent in a state where Democrats have won every Senate election since 1986. Another 18 percent are undecided about who they would back, according to a polling memo shared with the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and obtained by Punchbowl News.

Looking deeper, 44 percent of poll participants say they would either “definitely” or “probably” back Hogan, while another five percent “lean” toward the former governor. The share of voters who would “probably” or “definitely” support Trone is 30 percent.

Hogan — a moderate Republican and Donald Trump critic — performs even better when pitted against Alsobrooks. Under this scenario, he leads with a majority of 52 percent of support, while 29 percent would back the county executive. The share of voters who would “definitely” or “probably” support Hogan climbs to 47 percent, while just 25 percent would “probably” or “definitely” vote for Alsobrooks.

Despite Hogan’s early leads, the pollster emphasizes it expects “a tough race for” several reasons:

  • We expect Democrats to spend at unprecedented levels in Maryland attacking Governor Hogan.
  • As a billionaire self-funder, David Trone will have virtually unlimited resources.
  • Maryland is arguably the bluest state in America and has not elected a Republican senator for 44 years. Joe Biden won Maryland by 33 points in 2020, a difference of over a million votes.

The former governor also enjoys better name identification and a stronger favorability rating than his Democrat counterparts. Hogan’s name identification comes in at 93 percent, Trone’s registers at 60 percent, and Alsobrooks’s is 41 percent.

Moreover, Hogan is 45 points above water in favorability, with 64 percent expressing positive views toward him versus 19 percent who see him negatively. Conversely, 30 percent find Trone favorable, while 12 percent find him unfavorable. Concerning Alsobrooks, 20 percent have favorable perceptions of her, while seven percent have negative ones.

The poll sampled 600 likely Maryland voters from January 30 to February 1, and the margin of error is ± four percentage points. Hogan’s entrance into the race at the eleventh hour brings major implications for Cardin’s seat and for the national battle between Democrats and Republicans for a majority in the next Senate.

The 2024 Senate map is extremely advantageous to Republicans, with 23 Democrat seats up for election in 2024 to only 11 Republican seats. Moreover, the best two pick-up opportunities for Democrats are long shots in Texas and Florida against strong incumbents, Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rick Scott (R-FL).

Conversely, Republicans have realistic pick-up opportunities in ten of the 23 Democrat seats in November, with Hogan now in the fray. In January, Breitbart News extensively detailed a four-tiered plan for Republicans to take control of the upper chamber when they had legitimate chances at nine seats at the time.

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