Colorado: Why Romney Will Win

Colorado: Why Romney Will Win

Just as with Ohio, Colorado results also skew higher for Republican presidential candidate than the national average.  This means another swing state looks like it will go for Mitt Romney, especially since he is leading in the state, according to two polls released last week; Survey USA/Denver Post and Quinnipiac both had Romney leading by one point. A third poll by ARG had Romney up by four.

Just as in Ohio, in every presidential election since 1980 except one, the state of Colorado has voted in higher numbers for the Republican candidate, sometimes significantly higher, than the national average. The only exception was in 2008, when Barack Obama had a 7.27 lead nationally, and a 8.95 lead in Colorado.  This very likely was affected by the fact that the Democratic convention was held in Denver, and even with that edge, Obama’s lead only was 1.68 higher.

Here are the statistics from all the other elections:

2008: National average: Obama 52.87, McCain 45.60. Obama ahead 7.27
           Colorado: Obama 53.66, McCain 44.71. Obama ahead 8.95  
2004: National average: Bush 51.73, Kerry 48.27 Bush ahead 3.46
            Colorado: Bush 51.69, Kerry 47.02. Bush ahead 4.67
2000: National average: Gore 48.38, Bush 47.87 Gore ahead  0.51
            Colorado: Bush 50.75, Gore 42.39. Bush ahead 8.36 
1996: National average: Clinton 49.23, Dole 40.72 Clinton ahead 8.5
            Colorado:  Clinton 44.43, Dole 45.80. Dole ahead 1.37  
1992: National average: Clinton 43.01, George H. Bush 37.45 Clinton ahead 5.56
            Colorado: Clinton 40.13, Bush 35.87. Clinton ahead 4.26  
1988: National average: Bush 53.37, Dukakis 45.65. Bush ahead 7.72
            Colorado: Bush 53.06, Dukakis 45.28. Bush ahead 7.78  
1984: National average: Reagan 58.77, Mondale 40.56 Reagan ahead 18.21
            Colorado: Reagan 63.44, Mondale 35.12. Reagan ahead 28.32  
1980: National average: Reagan 50.75, Carter 41.01 Reagan ahead 9.74
            Colorado: Reagan 55.07 Carter 31.07. Reagan ahead 24.00

Colorado, just as Ohio, traditionally polls better than national average for Republicans.  And there’s a silent issue at work here. Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, favors marijuana legislation and polls well in Colorado. There is a measure on the ballot to legalize pot. This measure may draw young people to the polls but instead of voting for Obama, they may vote for Johnson instead, which cripples Obama even more. Romney’s numbers are improving weekly, and it’s a reasonably safe bet that if Colorado’s history means anything, Romney will win the state.