61 Seats the GOP Must Hold to Maintain a Majority in the House of Representatives

DENVER - AUGUST 25: Senator Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) holds the gavel during day one of the Democratic National Convention (DNC) at the Pepsi Center August 25, 2008 in Denver, Colorado. The DNC, where U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) will be officially nominated as the Democratic candidate for U.S. president, starts …
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The math of what the GOP must do to maintain its majority in the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2018 midterm elections is simple.

With only 100 of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives competitive this cycle, and 86 of those seats currently held by Republicans, the GOP must hold onto 61 of those 86 seats and flip three of the 14 Democrat seats that are competitive.

Such an outcome will reduce the Republicans’ current 45 seat advantage–240 Republicans to 195 Democrats in the current 115th session of Congress–to a one seat advantage in the 116th session of Congress that will be sworn in during the first week of January 2019: 218 to Republicans to 217 Democrats. Though an extraordinarily narrow majority, it will still be a majority, which means that the new Speaker of the House will be a Republican, not a Democrat.

Here is the math:

Republicans currently have 154 safe seats. Adding 61 holds and 3 flips from the Democrats to those safe seats will result in 218 Republican seats in the 116th Congress.

The Democrats currently have 181 safe seats. Adding 11 holds and 25 flips from Republicans to those safe seats will result in 217 Democrat seats in the 116th Congress.

Should the Republicans fail to keep these 61 seats and flip three from Democrat to Republican control, the new Speaker of the House in January will be a Democrat.

Despite what some Democrat candidates are saying on the campaign trail now, the odds-on favorite to be named Speaker should they regain the majority is still current House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA).

There is little doubt that her first order of business as Speaker will be to begin impeachment proceedings against President Trump, another tactic in the unceasing efforts of the Democrat Party to delegitimize the results of the 2016 Presidential election.

While keeping 61 competitive House seats in Republican hands may seem like a daunting task, there are two important points to consider: (1) It is no more daunting than the task faced by the Trump campaign in securing an electoral college victory in the 2016 Presidential election. (2) It is the perfect warmup in a number of key battleground states for what is expected to be a hard fought 2020 Presidential election.

With that in mind, Breitbart News has prepared this list of 61 MUST WIN Republican held-house seats and three MUST FLIP Democrat-held House seats, organized by state:

Florida: MUST WIN 7

CD-06 Open (Likely)

CD-15 Open (Likely)

CD-16 Buchanan (Lean)

CD-18 Mast (Lean)

CD-25 Diaz-Balart (Likely)

CD-26 Curbelo (Toss-up)

CD-27 Open (Lean D)

Ohio: MUST WIN 5

CD-01 Chabot (Lean)

CD-10 Turner (Likely)

CD-12 Open (Toss-up)

CD-14 Joyce (Likely)

CD-15 Stiver (Likely)

California: MUST WIN 4

CD-04 McClintock (Likely)

CD-21 Valadao (Likely)

CD-45 Walters (Lean)

CD-48 Rohrbacher (Toss-up)

New York: MUST WIN 4

CD-01 Zeldin (Likely)

CD-11 Donovan (Likely)

CD-22 Tenney (Toss-up)

CD-24 Katko (Likely)

North Carolina: MUST WIN 4

CD-02 Holding (Likely)

CD-08 Hudson (Likely)

CD-09 Open (Lean)

CD-13 Budd (Lean)

Texas: MUST WIN 4

CD-07 Culberson (Toss-up)

CD-21 Open (Likely)

CD-23 Hurd (Lean)

CD-31 Carter (Likely)

Minnesota: MUST WIN 2, MUST FLIP 2

CD-1  Open (Toss-up) MUST FLIP from D to R

CD-2 Lewis (Toss-up)

CD-3 Paulsen (Toss-up)

CD-8 Open (Toss-up) MUST FLIP from D to R

Michigan: MUST WIN 3

CD-01 Berman (Likely)

CD-06 Upton (Likely)

CD-07 Walberg (Likely)

Pennsylvania: MUST WIN 3 MUST FLIP 1

CD-01 Fitzpatrick (Lean)

CD-10 Perry (Likely)

CD-14 Open (Likely R) MUST FLIP from R to D

CD-16 Kelly (Lean)

Virginia MUST WIN 3

CD-02 Taylor (Lean)

CD-05 Open (Lean)

CD-07 Brat (Toss-up)

Georgia: MUST WIN 2

CD-07 Woodall (Likely)

CD-06 Handel (Lean)

Kansas: MUST WIN 2

CD-02 Open (Lean)

CD-03 Yoder (Lean)

Illinois: MUST WIN 2

CD-13 Davis (Lean)

CD-14 Hultgen (Lean)

Washington: MUST WIN 2

CD-03 Herrera-Beutler (Likely)

CD-05 McMorris Rodgers (Lean)

Wisconsin: MUST WIN 2

CD-01 Open (Lean)

CD-06 Grothman (Likely)

Arizona: MUST WIN 1

CD-06 Schweikert (Likely)

Arkansas: MUST WIN 1

CD-02 Hill (Lean)

Colorado: MUST WIN 1

CD-03 Tipton (Likely)

Indiana: MUST WIN 1

CD-02 Walinski (Likely)

Missouri: MUST WIN 1

CD-02 Wagner (Likely)

Montana: MUST WIN 1

CD-At Large Gianforte (Lean)

Nebraska: MUST WIN 1

CD-02 Bacon (Lean)

New Jersey: MUST WIN 1

CD-03 MacArthur (Lean)

New Mexico: MUST WIN 1

CD-02 Open (Lean)

South  Carolina: MUST WIN 1

CD-01 Open (Likely)

Utah: MUST WIN 1

CD-04 Love (Lean)

West Virginia: MUST WIN 1

CD-03 Open (Lean)

 

 

(Note: District ratings align with the current House seat ratings from the Cook Political Report. Other outlets may have slightly different ratings for particular districts.)

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