62 Must-Win GOP-Held Seats After Indictment of Chris Collins

Floor of House
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The indictment of Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY-27) on insider trading charges by the Department of Justice on Wednesday put a “Safe Republican” seat into play and increased the number of GOP-held seats Republicans must win in November to maintain a majority in the House of Representatives to 62.

Collins’ announcement on Saturday that he will suspend his campaign and fill out the remaining few months of his term in Congress suggests that he will shortly withdraw from the race and a new GOP candidate will be named to run in November for the seat he currently holds.

The Cook Political Report downgraded the race in New York’s 27th Congressional District to “Likely Republican,” and Collins’ initial refusal to withdraw from the race gave Democrats an opportunity for several days to nationalize attacks against all Republicans in competitive House races as a simple choice of “right vs. wrong.”

The potential withdrawal of Collins from the race, however, removes that line of attack by Democrats.

The fact that Collins has been indicted, however, increases the number of competitive House races by one, and also increases the number of currently GOP-held seats Republicans must win to maintain a majority in the House from 61, as Breitbart News identified last month, to 62, with less than 90 days to go until the election.

Given the uncertainty as to the mechanics by which Collins withdraws and is replaced by another GOP candidate, and the uncertainty over the strength of that candidate, New York’s 27th Congressional District will may well remain a “competitive” race up until election day in November, even though President Trump won the district by 24 points in 2016 and Collins easily won re-election by a two to one margin.

If Republicans hold those 62 seats and flip three Democrat held seats, they will retain the majority in the House of Representatives when the 116th Congress convenes in Washington, D.C. in January 2019 with a narrow one vote margin over the Democrats, 218 to 217.

Currently, Republicans hold a 240 to 195 advantage in the House (Republicans currently hold 236 seats, with four previously GOP-held seats up in special elections on election day in November, and Democrats currently hold 193 seats, with two previously Democrat-held seats up in special elections on election day in November). With a net gain of 23 seats in November, Democrats would take a slim one vote margin majority, 218 to 217.

Of these 65 races, 27 are “looking good” for Republicans, while 38 are “hanging in the balance,” according to the latest Breitbart News rating of competitive House races.

In addition, Breitbart News has identified 24 competitive House races for seats currently held by Republicans that the GOP could win and four competitive House races in seats currently held by Democrats that the GOP could win in November to increase their potential majority in the 116th Congress beyond the slim one vote margin victories in the 65 Must Win races would give them.

The bottom line is this: Republicans need to run the table in all 65 MUST WIN seats to maintain a slim one vote majority in the House of Representatives.

And, if Republicans also run the table in the 28 COULD WIN seats, they will also increase their majority in the House by five seats, ending up with a 245 to 190 advantage over the Democrats.

The current Real Clear Politics Average of Polls gives Democrats just a 3.9 point advantage over Republicans in the generic Congressional ballot.

The latest Breitbart News breakdown of the competitive House races in the 2018 midterm elections is as follows:

26 MUST WIN GOP-held seats are “Looking Good”

36 MUST WIN GOP-held seats are “Hanging in the Balance”

1 MUST FLIP Democrat-held seat is “Looking Good”

2 MUST  FLIP Democrat-held seats are “Hanging in the Balance”

24 COULD WIN GOP-held seats are “Needing a Big Push”

4 COULD FLIP Democrat-held seats are “Needing a Big Push”

Here is the breakdown of these 93 Competitive Races:

 

MUST WIN GOP-held seats rated “Looking Good” (26)

AZ-06 Schweikert
CA-04 McClintock
CA-21 Valadao
CO-03 Tipton
FL-06 Open
FL-25 Diaz-Balart
GA-07 Woodall
IN-02 Walorski
MI-01 Bergman
MI-06 Upton
MI-07 Walberg
MO-02 Wagner
NC-02 Holding
NC-08 Hudson
NY-01 Zeldin
NY-11 Donovan
NY-24 Katko
NY-27 Chris Collins/Open
OH-10 Turner
OH-14 Joyce
PA-10 Perry
SC-01 Open
TX-02 Open
TX-21 Open
TX-31 Carter
WI-06 Grothman

 

MUST WIN GOP-held seats rated “Hanging in the Balance” (36)

AR-02 Hill
CA-45 Walters
CA-48 Rohrbacher
CO-06 Coffman
FL-15 Open
FL-16 Buchanan
FL-18 Mast
FL-26 Curbelo
GA-06 Handel
IL-13 Davis
IL-14 Hultgren
MI-08 Bishop
MT-00 Gianforte
MN-02 Lewis
MN-03 Paulsen
NC-09 Open
NC-13 Budd
NE-02 Bacon
NJ-03 MacArthur
NM-02 Open
NY-22 Tenney
OH-01 Chabot
OH-12 Balderson
PA-01 Fitzpatrick
PA-16 Kelly
TX-07 Culberson
TX-23 Hurd
TX-32 Sessions
UT-04 Love
VA-02 Taylor
VA-05 Open
VA-07 Brat
WA-03 Herrera Beutler
WA-05 McMorris Rodgers
WI-01 Open
WV-03 Open

MUST FLIP Democrat-held seats rated “Looking Good” (1)

PA-14 Open

MUST FLIP Democrat-held seats rated “Hanging in the Balance” (2)

MN-1 Open
MN-8 Open

COULD WIN Republican-held seats rated “Needing a Big Push” (24)
AZ-02 Open
CA-10 Denham
CA-25 Knight
CA-39 Open
CA-49 Open
FL-27 Open
IA-01 Blum
IA-03 Young
IL-06 Roskam
IL-12 Bost
KS-02 Open
KS-03 Yoder
KY-06 Barr
ME-02 Poliquin
MI-11 Open
NJ-02 Open
NJ-07 Lance
NJ-11 Open
NY-19 Faso
PA-06 Open
PA-07 Vacant
PA-17 Rothfus
VA-10 Comstock
WA-08 Open

COULD FLIP Democrat-held seats rated “Needing a Big Push” (4)

NH-01 Open
NH-02 Kuster
NV-03 Open
MN-07 Petersen

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