WaPo: GOP, Media Elites Decided Marco Rubio will Be the Nominee; Polls Disagree

Marco Rubio
AP Photo/David Goldman

Paul Waldman at the Washington Post explains why media coverage of Marco Rubio seems like it’s trying to create a self-fulfilling prophecy.

From the Washington Post:

Marco Rubio is hot, hot, hot — or at least that’s what you’d surmise if you’ve been reading the political news media over the last week or so. “Is Marco Rubio the New Favorite to Win the GOP Nomination?” asks MSNBC. “Why Marco Rubio’s Chances Are Rising,” reads the New York Times. “Rubio gains the hot hand,” says US News. The Los Angeles Times says he’s “surging in the polls.”

So how much has Rubio risen recently? Ten points? Twenty points? Nope, nothing like that at all. While he has ticked up a bit, a bit is all it is. We’re seeing the creation of a self-fulfilling prophecy, driven mostly by the media but probably with the active participation of elite Republicans who see general election potential in Rubio.

By any objective measure, Rubio isn’t doing much better than he was a month or a year ago. But we’re at the beginning of a cycle that could push Rubio higher, all because a bunch of people are making a prediction about what they think is going to happen in five or six months, not because of what’s actually happening now. It’s a kind of dispatch from the future — but one that helps create the future it’s predicting.

Read the rest of the story here.