Thursday in an appearance on Huntsville, AL radio’s WVNN, Rep. Robert Aderholt (R-AL) explained why his outlook on the 2020 election was improving, especially as Democratic Party candidates and elected officials were espousing points of view outside the American mainstream.
Aderholt argued that since the 2018 midterms, which Republicans surrendered the House of Representatives to Democrats, the chances of Republicans retaking the lower chamber of Congress have increased. He put those chances at “50-50.”
“Right after the election, it did not look good for the Republicans to automatically regain the majority in 2020, just because a couple of reasons,” he said on Thursday’s broadcast of “The Jeff Poor Show.” “Number one, Republicans lost quite a few number of seats, and number two, and probably the most important thing is when it is a presidential election year, the House rarely flips from what I understand, looking back at history.”
“And therefore, based on the fact we’re not two seats down, or five or six seats down, we’re about 20 seats-plus down now, there has to be a lot of seats that actually flip in order for us to take the majority back,” Aderholt continued. “Therefore, it was not really encouraging right after an election year to say, ‘Let’s just wait until two years and we’ll get it right back.’ I’m one of those folks – I like to be very honest with people and when they ask me that. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but it wasn’t going to probably happen.”
The Alabama Republican said having President Donald Trump on the ballot in 2020 also aids the GOP’s cause.
“However, with the way that the Democratic Party has been going, and the way that you see these Democratic presidential candidates conduct themselves going to the far left, I’m thinking that number one, President Trump, who is going to be reelected and have always thought that or thought he had a pretty good chance. Number two, I think there is a lot of congressional candidates who will be able to ride his coattails, and the majority may be able to be in reach in 2020.”
Aderholt tempered the enthusiasm by reminding listeners there was still a 50% chance Democrats could hold on in 2020.
“So, that’s where the optimism comes from,” Aderholt added. “I’m not saying it will happen, but I think we’re closer to a 50-50 shot now, whereas maybe right after the election, it was maybe a 20% shot at that.”
Follow Jeff Poor on Twitter @jeff_poor
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