Economists: Probability of Recession in 2023 Reaches 60%, Up 10 Points Since September  

A cashier assists a customer at a checkout counter at Harmons Grocery store in Salt Lake City, Utah, U.S., on Thursday, Oct. 21, 2021. More than a year and a half after the coronavirus pandemic upended daily life, the supply of basic goods at U.S. grocery stores and restaurants is …
George Frey/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The probability of a 2023 recession has reached 60 percent, up 10 points since September, according to a Bloomberg monthly survey of economists.

The poll was conducted from October 7-12 with 42 experts predicting a recession.

Chief international economist at ING, James Knightley, told Bloomberg the recession is due in part because of President Joe Biden’s inflation.

A “significant tightening of financial conditions is a clear headwind to growth and comes at a time when consumer and business confidence is already under immense pressure from the rising cost of living and falling equity, bond and real estate prices,” he said.

Many experts believe the nation is already in a recession. The United States has already experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, a common definition of recession.

Biden. however, believes the nation is not in a recession. “I don’t think there will be a recession. If it is, it’ll be a very slight recession. That is, we’ll move down slightly,” Biden told CNN’s Jake Tapper on Tuesday.

Yet Americans are suffering in Biden’s sluggish economy. A recent Heritage Foundation study shows Americans have lost $4,200 in annual income since Biden assumed office. Other experts project inflation will cost American families $5,520 in 2022.

Follow Wendell Husebø on Twitter @WendellHusebø. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality.


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