Tonight's Tony Award Predictions

Join Gary Graham, Tim Slagle, Moxie X. Cathedra, Stage Right and many more as Big Hollywood live-blogs the West Coast feed of the Tony Awards.

Tonight, 8:00 PM Pacific Time, Telecast on CBS.

It’s often said during Oscar season that there are two sets of predictions: Who WILL win, and who SHOULD win. It’s the same with Broadway’s Tony Awards but I often like to add a third prediction: What would be the best for business. Believe it or not, often times the Tony Awards seem to take into account the shows that “need” the award for marketing purposes. Even though one show stands out and seems to be the obvious choice to win the top prize, a surprise occurs and a David beats a Goliath thus ensuring a longer run for David. I will list a few examples for Best Musical travesties from the past that many might quarrel with in terms of the validity of the show that won, but the commercial outcome of the shows involved can’t be argued. You have a right to your own opinion, but not to your own facts.

1991: “Miss Saigon” has a multi-million-dollar advance, leads nominations with 11, wins Best Actor and Best Actress. Best Musical that year? “The Will Rogers Follies.” Without the award, “Will Rogers” would have not made it another six months. After winning the prize, it ran for two more years, had a successful tour and might still be running in Branson, MO. “Saigon” ran for a decade.

Good musical? Sure. But, BEST Musical?

1994: Disney’s “Beauty and the Beast” opens with an enormous advance sale and enormous hype due to Disney’s first foray on Broadway. They receive 9 nominations and win only one award, for Best Costume Design. That year’s Best Musical: Stephen Sondheim’s “Passion.” “Passion” closes six months later and gets the dubious distinction of being the shortest running show ever to be named Best Musical, but without the award, it would have closed in a month. “Beauty” ran over 5,000 performances.

2004: “Wicked” is a mega-hit and gets 10 nominations. Best Musical? “Avenue Q”, the R-rated spoof of “Sesame Street” that continues to run because of the Best Musical Prize. “Wicked” also runs and continues to break Broadway Gross Sales records despite not winning the Best Musical award.

So, it is often the case that there are two strong contenders for the Best Musical award. Show A is a very popular show doing great business, but many voters in the industry rationalize that Show A “doesn’t NEED the award.” Meanwhile, Show B is just getting by and with the added benefit of winning Best Musical the show will run another year and launch a national tour.

With that in mind, I humbly submit my predictions of who WILL win, who SHOULD win, and which win would be best for business:

Best Play

Dividing the Estate by Horton Foote

God of Carnage by Yasmina Reza

reasons to be pretty by Neil LaBute

33 Variations by Moisés Kaufman

“God of Carnage” WILL win, and SHOULD win, but with its star-studded cast already committed to an extension through November, it doesn’t NEED to win. If “reasons to be pretty” won it would give it the box office boost to keep running through the holidays or longer.

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Best Musical:

Billy Elliot, The Musical

Next to Normal

Rock of Ages

Shrek the Musical

“Billy Elliot” is this year’s behemoth. It is HUGELY popular and the clear favorite. Not only is it doing great business and is wildly entertaining, but it has a huge “X factor” going for it that always helps a show win a Tony Award: It has gay themes. Any musical that focuses on gay issues and has a storyline about characters who strive for acceptance in a stereotypical conservative community always wins … always. So, it WILL win, and probably SHOULD win (although my heart belongs to Alice Ripley and “Next to Normal”). But, little Billy doesn’t NEED to win the award for sales. If you want to judge this purely on the most money that stands to be made on winning this award, put your money on the big green guy. It would be a HUGE upset, but so was “Avenue Q” over “Wicked.” Maybe this time the green make-up lobby will win out!

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Best Revival of a Play:

Joe Turner’s Come and Gone

Mary Stuart

The Norman Conquests

Waiting for Godot

August Wilson died a few years ago… They named a theatre after him… President Obama just went on a very expensive date to see it… “Joe Turner” WILL win. “Mary Stuart” SHOULD win, it is theatre at its finest. And seeing as how “Godot” is doing great business, “Joe” will win and get a great turnaround in sales.

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Best Revival of a Musical:

Guys and Dolls

Hair

Pal Joey

West Side Story

“Hair” WILL win for a lot of reasons. Mostly because it is positioned perfectly for the Tony voters’ sensibilities. They all LIVED the “Hair” life in one way or another and pretend to still be edgy Bohemians trying to shock mainstream America. That’s why they loved “Rent” so much… “Rent” was just “Hair” with HIV. “West Side Story” SHOULD win because.. well… IT’S “WEST SIDE STORY”!!!! Best win for business: “Guys and Dolls.”

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Tony Award for Best Special Theatrical Event:

Liza’s at The Palace…!

Slava’s Snowshow

Soul of Shaolin

You’re Welcome America – A Final Night with George W. Bush

Liza’s triumphant turn at the Palace (the same house which hosted her mother’s legendary concerts in 1968) SHOULD be acknowledged and awarded, but I doubt the voters can resist the opportunity to reward Will Ferrell for his hugely successful Bush-bash. Actually, giving Ferrell the Tony would be the best for business and sales, as well, because it would encourage other Hollywood actors in his genre to come to Broadway.

Note: The individual acting awards do not often fall under the “Best for Business” criteria, so I’ll give you a straight will/should in each:

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Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play:

Jeff Daniels – God of Carnage

Raul Esparza – Speed-the-Plow

James Gandolfini – God of Carnage

Geoffrey Rush – Exit the King

Thomas Sadoski – Reasons to Be Pretty

Will win: Geoffrey Rush

Should win: Geoffrey Rush

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Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play:

Hope Davis- God of Carnage

Jane Fonda – 33 Variations

Marcia Gay Harden – God of Carnage

Janet McTeer – Mary Stuart

Harriet Walter – Mary Stuart

Will win: Marcia Gay Harden (and let’s hope she makes some weird, 9/11 remark in the speech)

Should win: Janet McTeer

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Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical:

David Alvarez, Trent Kowalik, and Kiril Kulish – Billy Elliot, The Musical

Gavin Creel – Hair

Brian d’Arcy James – Shrek The Musical

Constantine Maroulis – Rock of Ages

J. Robert Spencer – Next to Normal

Will win: David Alvarez, Trent Kowalik, and Kiril Kulish (three different boys split time each week playing the title role in “Billy Elliot”)

Should win: Brian d’Arcy James

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Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical:

Stockard Channing – Pal Joey

Sutton Foster – Shrek The Musical

Allison Janney – 9 to 5: The Musical

Alice Ripley – Next to Normal

Josefina Scaglione – West Side Story

Who will win: Alice Ripley

Who should win: Alice Ripley

Last prediction: Gay Marriage will be the most joked about, pontificated about, and ranted about issue on the stage. You’re going to hear about it from the host, Neil Patrick Harris, all the way down to the winner of the most obscure technical award. Get ready for being called a bigot and a hater if you think marriage means one man and one woman.

Buckle-up and enjoy the evening. It should be a pretty entertaining show. I’ll switch over as soon as the Laker game is over. (I’m kidding! That’s why God invented picture-in-picture)

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