Currently No ‘Direct or Imminent Threat’ to Alliance Members From Russian Invasion, Says NATO Chief

Aftermath of the Russian missile attack on the center of Kharkiv, northeastern Ukraine, in
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Oliver JJ Lane

Contrary to alarming claims by top military officers in recent weeks, there is no “direct or imminent” threat to NATO nations, the alliance’s head has said.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has toned down the rhetoric on future conflict, returning to the alliance standard of emphasising the importance of deterrence to prevent war rather than making bold claims about the likelihood of approaching war. Speaking in Brussels on Tuesday as NATO signed a new deal for buying artillery ammunition to restock member states’ inventories emptied by donations to Ukraine, Stoltenberg was questioned on the likelihood of “Russian tanks” entering a European capital city in the next decade.

Stoltenberg said that while the new ammunition acquisition was both for members to be able to protect themselves and to continue to supply Ukraine, he didn’t foresee Russian forces crossing into NATO territory soon. He told the room: “we don’t see any direct or imminent threat against any NATO Ally.”

The purpose of NATO’s increased activity on its eastern border — “vigilance, our presence” — is to “prevent an attack on a NATO ally”, he said. Speaking of military competency and readiness as a key means of deterrence, preventing future wars — for decades the raison d’etre of NATO — Stoltenberg continued and said the alliance’s task is “to prevent this war from escalating to full-scale war between Russia and NATO.

“And we did that by deploying more combat troops to the eastern part of the Alliance, by further increasing our defence investments, and also by exercising more.”

The clear emphasis on deterrence comes after weeks of comments by top military figures warning in dire terms about a coming conflict. The most senior military officer in NATO — who works closely with Stoltenberg — said last week the next 20 years would not be “hunky dory” and the public should be prepared to be involved in a “whole of society event” should war with Russia come.

Challenged by a journalist over the extent to which comments by generals had alarmed the public and even triggered panic-buying of basic survival items like flashlights and battery radios, the Admiral said he welcomed such a move because the public needed to be frightened into action, saying “that’s great”. He said: “the people, they have to understand they play a role. Society is part of the solution… you need to have water, you need to have a radio on batteries, you need to have a flashlight with batteries to make sure you can survive the first 36 hours. Things like that, that’s simple things but it starts there.”

Those comments followed remarks by the military chief of Sweden, who said earlier this month: “Russia’s war against Ukraine is just a step, not an end game… We need to realise how serious the situation really is, and that everyone, individually, need to prepare themselves mentally”.

The British have also been making such remarks. Defence Minister Grant Shapps has said Europe is now in a new “pre-war” era, warning of “multiple theatres including Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea” in five years. Those comments were picked up and developed this week by the head of the British Army, General Patrick Sanders, who said the Army needs to be ready to “rapidly expand” and train and equip civilians to fight.

“Ukraine brutally illustrates that regular armies start wars; citizen armies win them”, Sanders said.

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