Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher held a nine-point advantage over Democrat challenger Harley Rouda in a new poll as Republicans fight to hold control of the House.
Rohrabacher broke the 50 percent threshold in the new Thomas Partners Strategies poll conducted October 18-31. Rouda came in at 41.6 percent to Rohrabacher’s 50.7 percent among 440 likely voters surveyed. The results represent a less than one percent change for each candidate from another poll the group released on October 18. Undecideds, however, decreased from 9.4 percent to 7.7.
Rouda led among no party preference voters who preferred him over Rohrabacher 49.9-42.9. Rohrabacher led among women over Rouda, 51.8-40.9.
Those surveyed favored a Congress that supports President Donald Trump’s “policies and agenda rather than acting as a check on the President,” the results stated.
“Rohrabacher has taken a significant lead in the race for CA-48, breaking the 50% threshold this week, despite TPStrat’s statewide generic ballot testing revealing a heavy Democratic advantage,” said strategist John Thomas. “Thus far the 48th CD appears to be immune to such negative gravity.”
“Trump is popular, Republicans are winning the generic ballot and there is a slight edge for the amount of voters who want Trump’s agenda to be pushed in Congress,” Thomas went on. “This seat is proving reliably red with a large R+10 Republican registration advantage giving Rohrabacher a large cushion to absorb a generally unfavorable climate for Republicans nationally.”
“The tsunami of negative ads attacking Rohrabcher have done damage to his favorables putting him underwater at 50.4% unfav to 41.7% fav,” said Thomas. “Despite poor favorability for a 29-year incumbent, Rohrabacher has been given life support from Donald Trump.” Thomas called the 48th district a firewall against the blue wave.