Cygnal Poll: Republican J.D. Vance Maintains 4-Point Lead over Democrat Tim Ryan in Ohio

MIDDLETOWN, OH - OCTOBER 19: Republican U.S. Senate candidate JD Vance speaks with supporters in his hometown at the Butler County GOP headquarters on October 19, 2022 in Middletown, Ohio. Vance, who is endorsed by former President Donald Trump, is running against Democratic candidate Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) in the …
Gaelen Morse/Getty Images, Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Republican J.D. Vance maintains his four-point lead over Democrat Rep. Tim Ryan in the race to fill Ohio’s open United States Senate seat, according to the latest polling by Cygnal released on Tuesday.

The Cygnal polling found that Vance leads Ryan by four percent, 48.3 percent of the 1,886 likely general election voters in Ohio to 44.2 percent, with 7.5 percent still undecided two weeks before the election.

“In the marquee Senate race, Vance’s lead has stayed a steady 4 percent, and time is running out for Ryan. Undecideds dropped and each candidate gained a point, so the window of uncertainty is closing,” said Noah Rudnick, the data scientist who fielded the poll.

As Rudnick said, the undecided shrunk as both sides gained more support since last week’s poll. That poll showed Vance with 47.3 percent to Ryan’s 43.2 percent, while undecided was 9.5 percent.

Vance also closed the gap among the independents, as Ryan only shows a slight lead, 42 percent to 45 percent. Last week’s poll showed Ryan with an eight-point lead among the independents, 38 percent to 46 percent.

In the Buckeye State, the president’s favorability is severely underwater, with 59.3 percent viewing him unfavorably while only 38.2 percent had a favorable view of him.

Additionally, the polling from Cygnal found that only 49.9 percent of the likely general election voters think the country is headed in the right direction. In comparison, an overwhelming majority of 69.5 percent say the country is going in the wrong direction. Another 5.7 percent said they were unsure.

Furthermore, on the generic ballot, a Republican candidate led by over ten points with 51.6 percent of the vote, while only 42.5 percent said they would vote for the Democrats. Another 5.8 percent said they were unsure.

The polling was conducted from October 20 to 24, with 1,886 likely general election voters, and saw a 2.26 percent margin of error.

Ohio’s U.S. Senate race is critical for the Republicans’ chance to retake the majority in the 2022 midterm elections. With Ohio currently being represented by a Republican, it is crucial for the party to keep the seat.

The Senate is currently divided 50-50 between the parties, with Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris being the tie-breaking vote. Senate Republicans must hold seats in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania and net at least one seat to put the GOP back in the majority and hinder President Joe Biden’s agenda.

The Ohio Senate election, along with other races throughout the country, takes place on November 8.

Jacob Bliss is a reporter for Breitbart News. Write to him at or follow him on Twitter @JacobMBliss.


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