We have recently learned of “credible yet unconfirmed threats” related to terrorist operations to be conducted around the tenth anniversary of 9-11. Political figures in the federal, state, and local levels across the nation have spoken to their constituents informing them about precautionary measures to be taken. But what type of intelligence threat is credible yet unconfirmed?
In the intelligence world, threats come into intelligence operations and fusion centers daily. All threats are handled in the most professional way–even those that have no credibility at all. Without divulging intelligence tradecraft, credible threats normally come in two primary forms.
Sources and assets with standing track records divulge information time and again that eventually comes to fruition. This is one form of a credible threat. The other type of credible threat often comes from a new source or asset without a track record however information revealed is extremely detailed and aligns with pre-existing knowledge held within the U.S. intelligence community. Again, there is more to assessing credible and non-credible threats yet divulging more insight to assessment processes crosses lines of breaching tradecraft secrets.
The most recent 9-11 anniversary threat is credible. Whether this insight came from a seasoned source or asset with a good track record is not as important as the details divulged. We know that a timeline was revealed demonstrating an initiation period of the overall operation–mid August. We know the type of modus operandi–a vehicle born devise. And we know at least three persons are involved including the nationality of at least one of the culprits–three persons total, one American.
Current intelligence practices make every effort to utilize a secondary source to confirm the initially procured information. Sometimes that secondary source comes from another human intelligence (HUMINT) asset, other times it comes from a technical intelligence platform through Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) or another means. Confirming a threat is not critical if it is as detailed as the one we have recently discovered. What is critical is implementation of precautionary measures that will eventually deter, detect, and destroy the presumed threat.
Today, some persons believe this new threat could have been uncovered through documentations found in Osama Bin Laden’s compound. This is extremely unlikely considering documentation exploitation (DOCEX) teams would have unfolded such information several weeks if not a month or so ago. This threat did not come from inside Bin Laden’s compound. No, it came from a source or asset being handled by one of America’s super patriots–a highly trained, highly skilled, highly capable U.S. intelligence officer.
Kerry Patton is the Co-Founder of the National Security Leadership Foundation, a non-profit organization pending 501c (3) status. He has worked in South America, Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and Europe, focusing on intelligence and security interviewing current and former terrorists, including members of the Taliban. He is the author of “Sociocultural Intelligence: The New Discipline of Intelligence Studies” and the children’s book “American Patriotism.” You can follow him on Facebook
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