This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Russia takes the lead in world foreign policy
- The Truman Doctrine versus Leading from Behind
- France in 1940: Leading from behind
- Things to watch for in 2014
Russia takes the lead in world foreign policy
World leader Vladimir Putin (Reuters)
In 2011, Russia was very unhappy that they’d abstained in theU.N. Security Council resolution allowing military action in Libya,because they felt that the U.S. and Nato had taken advantage of thesituation to go much farther than they had said they would. ( “22-Apr-11 News — Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics”) At thetime, I wrote the following, quoting an analyst from Jamestown:
“Russia plans to demand that Nato restrict itsactivities to only the humanitarian acts allowed by the UNresolution, and then veto any attempt to expand the resolution inthe Security Council, in order to guarantee a continued stalematein Libya.
This will set a precedent that allows Russia to effectivelycontrol future activities of Nato, since only activities approvedby the Security Council, and hence by Russia, could ever bepermitted.
Moscow has a broader interest in seeing the US and NATO tied downin wars of choice and other protracted confrontations. These warsincrease Russia’s leeway for action in ex-Soviet territories,which is Russia’s top priority, according to the article.Furthermore, if Libya’s oil exports are stopped, then Russia’s ownoil exports become more valuable.”
Little did I realize at the time how spectacularly successful thisRussian policy would be. Under the leadership of Russia’s presidentVladimir Putin, not only Nato foreign policy but also U.S. foreignpolicy have become completed crippled. Whether we’re talking aboutpolicy in Mideast, or Afghanistan, or the South China Sea, it’s almostimpossible to think of any action that President Barack Obama tookthat wouldn’t have been fully approved by Putin.
This was most spectacular in Syria. Putin repeatedly humiliated Obamaby forcing Obama to flip-flop on red line after another. Finally, onthe issue of chemical weapons, Obama gave in to Putin completely.
And that’s not all. Putin has humiliated Obama repeatedly in otherareas as well, most notably in the handling of Snowden.
The Truman Doctrine versus Leading from Behind
Whether people like it or not, America has been Policeman of the Worldsince the end of World War II. President Harry Truman made it so withthe Truman Doctrine in 1947, saying that no matter how much it costthe United States to help others who wish to be free, the cost wouldbe far less than the cost of World War II. President John Kennedyreaffirmed the Truman Doctrine, when he said, “Ask not what yourcountry can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.”( “25-Sep-13 World View — President Obama blasts Russia and Iran over Syria”)
What’s remarkable is how thoroughly America has abandoned the TrumanDoctrine during the last couple of years under President Obama.Obama’s policy of “Leading from behind” is the antithesis of theTruman Doctrine, the analog of a city policeman telling the streetgangs to fight it out among themselves, and call him when it’s allover.
France in 1940: Leading from behind
One reader in the Generational Dynamics forum compared Obama’s attitude towards thatof France when the Nazis invaded in 1940:
“I wonder if this is what it felt like before WorldWar II. The players are different of course. The Philippines orVietnam may play the role of Poland, and Japan perhaps France. Ormaybe Japan is Poland and the United States France.
One could see when threatened with “a nuclear winter that no onecould win” Obama would abandon Hawaii and other Pacific Islandterritories, plus the Panama Canal to China, and withdraw allsurviving U.S. military forces out of the Pacific Theater leavingthe U.S. west coast as a hostage guaranteeing U.S. neutrality.
As preposterous as this sounds, France surrendered in World War IIto Germany with the vast majority of the French Army intact.
The French Army was the largest Army in the world at the start ofWorld War II and considered one of the most well equipped withartillery and infantry weapons. France also had one of thelargest Naval Fleets in the World. Most of the French Army sat onthe border of Germany at the time of surrender with no significantGerman forces between that border and the German industrialheartland.
The bulk of the German army was far behind French lines, nearParis and other Northern French cities, with tanks and trooptransports, but no fuel supplies that would allow those tanks andtroops to withdraw and defend Germany.
The French just decided not to trade the destruction of Frenchcities for the destruction of German cities.
One could only guess what would happen in Western Europe and theMiddle East if the U.S. was no longer willing to risk anything todefend U.S. allies.”
The situation with France in WW II is a fascinating one, and it reallyonly makes sense when you consider what happened in France’s twoprevious major wars.
In World War I, France had fought the bloody Battle of Verdun andBattle of the Somme, resulting in tens of millions of deaths. It washorrific. And then what happened? First the Americans came over.Next, the Germans surrendered, not because they were defeated on thebattlefield, but because of internal political squabbles in Berlin’sgovernment during their generational Unraveling era. And after theFrench fought all those bloody battles, who got all the credit forwinning? The Americans.
Also, in 1940, there were still memories of the 1871 Paris Commune,where tens of thousands of Parisians rose up and killed each other ina battle that was historically viewed as insane.
In 1940, the French well remembered the Paris Commune and World War I,both wars with insane results. So in 1940, the mood was, “Hey, herewe go again. Let the British fight this one. Let the Americans fightthis one. We’re going to sit this one out, because to do anythingelse is insane.”
From France’s point of view, this worked out great. London gotbombed, but Paris did not, and the Germans were defeated anyway. Idoubt that the French would have openly gloated about that, but
Unfortunately, Leading from behind hasn’t worked so well for Americaso far, as American foreign policy has been disastrously weak andnaive, and has led to problems around the world:
- Russia and Iran have taken the leadership roles in the Mideast, making Syria a magnet for Sunni jihadists around the world, and creating a rising sectarian conflict throughout the region. Saudi Arabia is becoming an American enemy.
- Obama’s determination to avoid conflict has allowed Iraq to return to the worst sectarian violence in years, and is threatening to result in a rout in Afghanistan, as America withdraws in 2014.
- In the Asia Pacific, former allies are questioning America’s willingness to meet its commitments in mutual defense agreements, and Japan, Philippines and other countries are bolstering their own militaries.
The problems are part of a trend that’s leading to a new world war,but that’s going to happen anyway.
It was almost ten years ago that I said that in the coming Clash ofCivilizations world war, China, Pakistan and the Sunni Arab countrieswould be the “axis” fighting against the “allies,” the West, India,Russia, Iran and Israel.
Ten years ago, the thought that we might be allied with Iran seemedfantastical, and indeed I was criticized for suggesting it. But fewpeople would consider it fantastical today. Iran and West are movingcloser together, while Saudi Arabia is moving away from the Wet.
At the same time, it’s probably a good thing that Japan, Philippinesand others are arming themselves, as we’ll need all the help we canget confronting China’s plans for full-scale war.
Things to watch for in 2014
Here are the major things to watch for in 2014:
- China is continuing to arm itself rapidly, preparing to launch a pre-emptive missile attack at America’s cities, military installations, and aircraft carriers. Only the timing is unknown, but now thanks to the Edward Snowden’s disclosures to the Chinese and Russians, America may be almost completely defenseless against such an attack, and China may decide to take advantage in 2014.
- Tensions are sky-high between China and Japan, China and Philippines, and China an Vietnam, and it would not take much for a minor military confrontation to occur, and that could spiral into a much bigger military confrontation.
- Thanks to the situation in Syria, the entire Mideast is becoming inflamed along Sunni/Shia sectarian lines and, once again, it would not take much for a minor military confrontation to spiral into something bigger.
- The Wall Street stock market bubble has gotten so large that mainstream financial advisers are predicting a crash soon. (See, for example, Estimating the Risk of a Market Crash, John P. Hussman Ph.D.) According to Friday’s Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock valuations) on Friday (December 27) morning was 18.98, which is astronomical by historic standards, indicating that stocks are far overpriced, and the stock market bubble is worse than ever.
In U.S. domestic policy, Obamacare continues to be a growing economicdisaster, and it’s expect to cause major dislocations in thehealthcare industry in 2014. ( “1-Dec-13 World View — Obamacare: 500M lines of code, $500M, only 60% completed”)