This morning’s key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Kashmir locked down after Indian security forces kill seven civilians
- India’s ‘Operation all-out’ to continue as more young Kashmiris become militants
Kashmir locked down after Indian security forces kill seven civilians
Kashmiris turn out for funeral of the civilians killed on Saturday (AP)
Indian-governed Kashmir was locked down with curfew-like restrictions for a third day on Monday after seven civilians were killed during a shootout between militants and Indian security forces on Saturday. Armed police and paramilitary soldiers in riot gear fanned out across the region in anticipation of further anti-India protests and clashes. Shops and businesses closed in other areas with no security restrictions. Authorities stopped train services and cut cellphone internet in Srinagar and other restive towns and reduced connection speeds in other parts of the Kashmir Valley to prevent anti-India demonstrations from being organized.
Seven civilians were killed and at least 36 injured in clashes that erupted after three militants were shot dead in a gunfight in the village of Pulwama in Indian-governed Kashmir during the early hours on Saturday. Two soldiers were critically injured in the encounter and one died.
The three slain militants were identified as being associated with Hizbul Mujahideen (HM), a home-grown indigenous militant separatist group in Kashmir – as opposed to Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), a Pakistan-based terrorist group. One of the militants was Ahmad Thokar, who had deserted from the Indian army to join HM. These defections have been increasingly common recently. Tribune India and AP and Pakistan Today
India’s ‘Operation all-out’ to continue as more young Kashmiris become militants
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Kashmir is replaying previous generations of violence according to a fairly standard template. India’s previous two generational crisis wars were India’s 1857 Rebellion, which pitted Hindu nationalists against British colonists, and then the 1947 Partition War, one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century, pitting Hindus versus Muslims, following the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan.
Now, as the survivors of the 1947 Partition War have almost all died off, leaving behind younger generations with no fear of repeating past disasters, Kashmir is repeating the violence of 1857 and 1947. Generational Dynamics predicts that Kashmir is returning to full-scale war, re-fighting the extremely bloody partition war of 1947.
We are now seeing the next step in this standard template, as generations of young Muslims in Kashmir become increasingly self-radicalized and replace the Pakistani-supplied terrorists in Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) with indigenous Kashmiris joining Hizbul Mujahideen (HM).
A major change occurred after the July 8, 2016, death of HM leader Burhan Wani in a gunfight with the Indian army. This triggered a continuing series of demonstrations and riots. Since then, thousands of Kashmiris have been blinded in one or both eyes by pellet guns used by Indian security forces and thousands of youths have been arrested.
In this generational Crisis era, the clashes between young Kashmiris and Indian security forces are providing the motivation for young people to simply disappear and join HM. Parents, according to news reports, are forced to search jihadist social media sites to search for pictures of their sons who have disappeared.
Burhan Wani himself had joined HM after Indian security forces beat up his brother Khalid. After he was killed, he was the inspiration for many others to join HM.
Indian politicians and security forces, who have no understanding of generational theory, have no idea what is going on and are looking desperately for a way to return to the “normalcy” of twenty years ago. This is impossible since 20 years ago there were still survivors of the 1947 Partition War who were willing to accept any compromise to prevent anything so horrible from happening again. But those survivors are gone, and the younger generations simply want revenge.
This led India’s army in June 2017 to launch “Operation All-Out.” Under this plan, the army identified 258 specific militants the would be specifically targeted and captured, thus delivering “a lethal blow to terrorism … with a long-term plan for a listing peace.”
When Operation All-Out was announced last year, the 258 militants were almost all in Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT). Since then, hundreds of additional militants have been identified and this time they are indigenous youths joining Hizbul Mujahideen (HM). However, the Kashmiris have been adapting to Operation All-Out. When Indian security forces are spotted traveling to the home of a suspected militant, the people pour out of their homes and block them.
That is what happened on Saturday. The security forces were targeting three HM militants when local youths thronged the forces and began hurling stones. This resulted in the live fire that killed not only the militants but at least seven civilians.
Avinash Rai Khanna, a senior Indian politician, says that Operation All-Out will continue “until the last terrorist is eliminated.” He blamed the deaths of the civilians on Saturday on the local youths who threw stones. According to Khanna:
Civilian killings are unfortunate, but when people interfere in operations and try to divert the attention of the forces, mishaps are bound to happen. We can only appeal to people to let the forces do their job in eliminating terrorists and not indulge in activities like stone-throwing or cause obstruction in operations.
We had come to power in the state with an agenda of peace and development, but had to back out when things started going haywire. … We want [Kashmir] terrorism-free. Operation All-out will reach its logical end.
Khanna assumes that the “normalcy” of twenty years ago can return, but Generational Dynamics predicts that the militancy will continue to worsen until the 1947 Partition War in Kashmir is refought. Tribune India and The Kashmir Walla and Hindustan Times and Dawn (Pakistan)
- Number of Kashmir militants surges as India’s ‘Operation All-Out’ fails (28-Sep-2018)
- India’s Kashmir locked down after 3 civilians killed by police (09-Jul-2018)
- India’s ‘Operation All-Out’ brings Kashmir closer to all-out war (24-Jun-2017)
- Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is (15-Aug-2017)
- India’s Narendra Modi finally hits out at Cow Protectors (‘Gau Rakshaks’) (07-Aug-2016)
- India-Pakistan tensions grow over Kashmir issue (21-Jul-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Pakistan, Kashmir, Pulwana, Operation All-Out, Lashkar-e-Toiba, LeT, Hizbul Mujahedeen, HM, Burhan Wani, Jaish-e-Mohammad, JeM, Partition War, Avinash Rai Khanna
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