Ipsos is a top-ranked polling firm — and it is producing a series of state polls showing Donald Trump doing dramatically better than the polls by other trusted polling firms.
Those Ipsos state polls show Trump clinching leads in New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Maine.
That’s really big because President Barack Obama won all those states in 2012. Obama won Wisconsin by 6.7 points, Michigan by 9.5 points, Maine by 15.1 points, and New Hampshire by 5.8 points.
The Real Clear Politics poll-aggregation site shows Trump behind Clinton in Michigan by eight percentage points, but Ipsos shows Trump just ahead of Clinton, at 44 percent to 43 percent.
In Maine, Ipsos shows Trump scoring 40 percent to Clinton’s 39 percent, while RCP puts Clinton ahead by roughly eight points.
In Wisconsin, Ipsos shows Trump ahead 39 percent to 36 percent, while RCP puts Clinton ahead by five points.
In New Hampshire, Ipsos gives Trump 48 percent support, compared to Clinton’s 34 percent. In contrast, RCP’s polling average shows Clinton ahead by nine points.
The firm’s accumulation of state polls, however, still leaves Clinton far ahead of Trump in total electoral votes.
The likely difference between Ipsos — which conducts polling for the Reuters news service — and the many other polling firms is their turnout prediction for November.
“Winning the White House depends as much on who comes out to vote as which candidate Americans prefer. Each week, we poll more than 15,000 people, then factor in likely turnout among key demographics to see how voting would play out in the Electoral College,” according to Ipsos.
“Currently, Reuters/Ipsos estimates overall turnout at around 60%, although that rate varies among different demographic groups. Minority turnout, for example, is expected to be about 43%, while about 59% of African-American women and 69% of White men are projected to cast ballots,” according to a site run by Reuters and Ipsos.
Whatever the explanation, Ipsos’s record at correctly predicting elections has earned the firm an A- rating from the polling analysis site, Fivethirtyeight.com.