NEW YORK CITY, New York — Republican nominee for president Donald J. Trump has taken the lead in Colorado and maintains his lead in Ohio, two new Breitbart News Network/Gravis Marketing polls released on Sunday show. The promising polls for Trump come just before the all-important debate an hour from here on Monday night, at Hofstra University on Long Island.
In Colorado, a swing state with 9 electoral votes, Trump leads Democratic nominee Hillary Rodham Clinton by 4 points—outside the survey’s 3.5 percent margin of error. Trump, at 41 percent, leads Clinton—who has just 37 percent. Libertarian Gary Johnson takes 6 percent and Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party takes 6 percent, and 10 percent of the voters polled are undecided. The poll, conducted from Sept. 22 to Sept. 23, surveyed 799 registered voters in Colorado.
“The collapse of the Never Trump movement in Colorado is consistent with Trump’s ability to consolidate Republicans behind him,” Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing—the Florida-based company that executed the poll—said. “Colorado is close between Trump and Clinton, but Clinton’s inability to lock down the state by now makes me wonder if when her campaign announced they were leaving because it was locked down–they knew then it wasn’t.”
Kaplan is referring to reports from back in July and August where Clinton’s campaign significantly reduced spending in Colorado. Since the Clinton campaign backed out of the state, at least somewhat, the trends have shifted significantly toward Trump with many recent surveys showing Trump either running even with Clinton there or overtaking her in the important battleground state.
Pat Caddell, the legendary Democratic pollster who worked for former President Jimmy Carter, told Breitbart News that this poll is a sign of an electorate very much uneasy with the direction of the country.
“I think that Colorado is not what people think it is,” Caddell said. “You’re dealing with very raw bad numbers on roughly the economy, and Hillary is now consistently being narrowed to people who think the country is on the right track which is a distinct minority and the people who think the economy is doing okay, which is also a distinct minority.”
Over in the bellwether state of Ohio, Trump also continues to run strong in the latest Breitbart/Gravis poll there.
Trump, at 43 percent, leads Clinton’s 42 percent—while Johnson pulls 6 percent and Stein pulls 1 percent with 8 percent undecided. That poll, also conducted Sept. 22 to Sept. 23, surveyed 850 registered voters in the Buckeye State—and has a margin of error of 3.4 percent.
“Ohio is the backbone of Republican presidential campaigns,” Kaplan said. “Romney in 2012 received fewer votes than McCain did in 2008, but gauging the intensity on the GOP side in 2016, we are going to see Trump top both of them. Trump has great support there in pockets that he is expanding. He might have won the primary if he was not playing in many states, while Governor Kasich was focused on his own.”
Caddell said these Ohio numbers, combined with the Colorado ones, means the race “seems to be moving away from personalities and who’s more competent or whatever, and much more to referendum grounds.”
“That is why Trump is closing,” Caddell said.
In both polls, what we also have in there that is undeniable is that the big thing with the border and immigration—they’re concerned about it, they don’t go so far as a total Muslim ban or a total whatever, but in generalities they’re concerned about it. What is indisputable in all of the polling we are doing now is if this refugee issue—if it becomes a voting issue, if this becomes an issue tied to terrorism—concern over terrorism in your community is very great. Let’s not underestimate that. If refugees are tied to that, the refugee numbers even among many Democrats when it comes to Hillary’s position or the president’s position on expanding refugees are quite negative.
Ohio’s 18 electoral votes are critical to either presidential candidate: Trump or Clinton.
In both states, GOP U.S. Senate candidates are leading.
Darryl Glenn, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Colorado, has taken a lead over incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Michael Bennett. Glenn, at 45 percent, leads Bennet—at 43 percent—with 12 percent of voters unsure of for whom they will vote in the Senate race. That slight lead for Glenn is good news for an outsider candidate—and strong Trump supporter—who in other recent surveys has struggled.
With regard to Glenn’s performance in this poll, Caddell said that “there are people voting for him who do not know him—and there’s a certain sign of being dragged along.”
In Ohio, incumbent GOP Sen. Rob Portman has a sizable lead over former Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland. Portman’s 44 percent is 8 points—well outside the margin of error—better than Strickland’s 36 percent, with a high level of 20 percent of voters unsure.
A significant majority of Ohio voters—59 percent—also said they believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction, while just 23 percent said it is going in the right direction and 14 percent said it was going in neither the right or wrong direction. Four percent were unsure.
Similarly, in Colorado, 56 percent said the country is going in the wrong direction and 25 percent said it is going in the right direction while 15 percent said it was going in neither the right nor wrong direction and 4 percent were unsure.
President Barack Obama’s approval ratings in both states are dropping as well, as just 28 percent of Colorado’s voters strongly approve of the job he is doing and 16 percent somewhat approve. On the flip side, in Colorado, 45 percent strongly disapprove of the job Obama is doing as president and 7 percent somewhat disapprove—putting his disapproval rating into the majority at 52 percent total—while 4 percent were didn’t know.
In Ohio, 43 percent strongly disapproved of the job Obama is doing—and 8 percent somewhat disapproved—for a slightly smaller majority of 51 percent total disapproval of Obama’s job performance. Thirty-four percent in Ohio strongly approve of Obama’s job performance and 14 percent somewhat approve, while 1 percent were unsure.
“The other key is, the other point I want to make is, that in both of these polls, Obama’s approval rating is down,” Caddell said.
That is a major thing because both her and Trump are hinged to that. And one of the things I’ve been saying is as he crosses the fence and she drags him [Obama] into the race, if he goes down it really hurts her. That’s what’s happening. We have had the bombings, we have his reaction to that, we have the—let’s put it this way—the less than energetic response to what happened. The White House’s interesting response didn’t even charge the guy with being a member of ISIS. There’s still their willingness and resistance on that [calling radical Islamic terrorism what it is].
Both Clinton and Trump have exorbitantly high unfavorable ratings, as well, in both states.
A whopping 52 percent of Ohio voters saying they have a strongly unfavorable view of Clinton and 6 percent saying they have a somewhat unfavorable view of her. Just 25 percent in Ohio view the Democratic nominee in a strongly favorable light while 14 percent consider her somewhat favorable and 3 percent don’t know. Forty-eight percent of Ohioans surveyed view Trump as strongly unfavorable and 11 percent view him as somewhat unfavorable, while just 22 percent see him as strongly favorable and 16 percent as somewhat favorable and 3 percent didn’t know.
In Colorado, 57 percent view Hillary Clinton as strongly unfavorable and 5 percent as somewhat unfavorable—for an astounding 62 percent total unfavorable rating for her there—while just 21 percent view her as strongly favorable and 16 percent consider her somewhat favorable and 1 percent didn’t know. Fifty-three percent in Colorado, a similarly high number, consider Trump highly unfavorable and 6 percent consider him somewhat unfavorable, while only 19 percent considered him strongly favorable, 18 percent considered him somewhat favorable and 4 percent didn’t know.
On issues in both states, voters have fallen more into line with Trump’s positions on refugees than Clinton’s in the wake of recent terrorist attacks in Minnesota and New York. A solid majority in Colorado—64 percent in total—were either concerned or very concerned that a refugee or immigrant could engage in a terror like what happened in Minnesota or New York and New Jersey last week.
“Recently a Somali refugee attacked ten people in a Minnesota mall with a knife, and an Afghan immigrant was arrested for detonating bombs in New York City and New Jersey. How concerned are you a similar kind of attack could happen in your community and area?” those polled were asked.
In Colorado, 36 percent responded that they were very concerned, 28 percent said they were concerned, 19 percent said they were not very concerned, 15 percent said they were not concerned at all and 3 percent said they don’t know.
In Ohio, even more profoundly, voters were concerned. Asked the same question, 75 percent said they were either “concerned” or “very concerned”—28 percent for the former and 47 percent for the latter—while just 16 percent said they were not very concerned and 8 percent weren’t concerned at all and 2 percent were unsure.
In addition, 50 percent in Ohio said they were “very concerned” about “controlling immigration and securing the southern border” while 18 percent said they were somewhat concerned and just 21 percent were not concerned and 11 percent were uncertain. In Colorado, 42 said they were “very concerned” about “controlling immigration and securing the southern border” while 20 percent said they were somewhat concerned. A paltry 32 percent in Colorado were not concerned and 6 percent were uncertain.
When it comes to building a wall on the border, 50 percent in Colorado opposed it—and 39 percent supported it—while 10 percent were uncertain. Forty-seven percent in Ohio opposed a wall, while 41 percent supported one and 12 percent were uncertain.
Ohioans were split on a temporary ban on all Muslim migration to the United States, with 43 percent supporting it and 43 percent opposing the idea and 15 percent unsure. In Colorado, 48 percent opposed a Muslim ban while 41 percent supported one and 12 percent were unsure.
Voters in Colorado also believe, 46 percent to 41 percent with 13 percent uncertain, that illegal immigration increases crime in their communities. Similarly, Ohioans believe the same thing about their communities at a rate of 45 percent saying illegal immigration does increase crime in their communities while 40 percent say it doesn’t and 15 percent unsure.
A significant plurality, 44 percent in Ohio, said they more agree with Trump’s positions on refugees when asked this question: “Donald Trump wants to reduce the number of refugees. Hillary Clinton wants to increase the number of refugees. Are you more likely to vote for a presidential candidate because of their position on refugees?” Only 21 percent said they agreed with Clinton and 35 percent said neither. Asked the same question in Colorado, 43 percent replied Trump and just 16 percent replied Clinton—while 42 percent were uncertain.
Majorities of voters in both states want to either stop or reduce the number of refugees the nation—and their state—are bringing in. Both states were surveyed on this question: “Do you support President Obama’s plan to increase the number of refugees coming to the United States from the Middle East, Africa, and other parts of the world to 110,000 next year, up from the current level of 85,000, or do you think we should allow no refugees, fewer refugees, or the same as the current level?”
In Colorado, 32 percent replied “stop” while 25 percent said they wanted a reduction—for a total of 57 percent wanting a direction different than the one Obama and Clinton are offering—while 15 percent want the same and 28 percent want an increase. In Ohio, 35 percent said they wanted a stop entirely while 27 percent wanted a reduction—for a total of 62 percent against Obama and Clinton—while 18 percent wanted the same and just 20 percent wanted an increase.
The numbers even more profound when respondents were asked specifically about their own communities when it comes to refugees.
“Under President Obama’s plan, the number of refugees resettled in the state of Ohio is likely to increase by 30 percent, from about 4,000 this year to 5,200 next year. Do you want more, the same, fewer, or no new refugees coming into Ohio next year?” Ohioans were asked, to which 40 percent replied they wanted a halt, 21 percent said they wanted a reduction, 23 percent said they wanted the same and 17 percent wanted an increase.
“Under President Obama’s plan, the number of refugees resettled in the state of Colorado is likely to increase by 30 percent, from about 1,600 this year to 2,100 next year. Do you want more, the same, fewer, or no new refugees coming into Colorado next year?” Colorado voters were asked, to which 34 percent replied they wanted the refugees to stop entirely, 23 percent said they wanted a reduction, 16 percent said they wanted the same and 27 percent wanted an increase.