Roy Moore Retakes Lead By 5 Points in JMC Analytics Poll — Says Allegations ‘Have Not Materially Impacted the Race’


A new JMC Analytics poll shows that GOP U.S. Senate hopeful Roy Moore has retaken the lead over his Democratic rival Doug Jones.

Polling conducted earlier this month by the same firm had shown Jones with a four-point edge over Moore, but Moore recovered by gaining six points, and Jones dropped three points in the survey conducted November 27 and 28.

The poll’s sample included 650 likely voters surveyed by landline with a margin of error was 3.8 percent.

Polling not only showed gains for Moore but gains for Republicans over Democrats on a generic ballot, an improvement from JMC’s previous.

“Since the last poll, both Republicans in general and Roy Moore specifically have regained their plurality leads, and this arguably can be attributed to existing partisan preferences’ reasserting themselves: in the last poll, Moore was tied 47-47% among male voters and trailed 42-48% among women,” the summary that accompanied the poll stated. “While he still trails by a similar 44-50% among women (leaners included), he has rebounded among men and leads 54-37%. Similarly, among self-identified evangelicals, the 57-34% support he had in the last poll is now 64-29%. The numbers barely changed among non-evangelicals, where his 22-73% poll deficit is now 23-72%.”

The poll also concluded that the sexual misconduct allegations plaguing Roy Moore’s campaign “have not materially impacted the race.”

“When the last poll was released, allegations of sexual misconduct against Moore had just been publicized. Since then, additional allegations have come out, but the poll results then (and now) didn’t show that these allegations have appreciably changed the poll results,” the summary explained. “For one thing, even in this poll, 29% are more likely to support Moore over the allegations, 38% are less likely, and 34% said it makes no difference – numbers almost identical to the last poll. It’s when examining the correlation of these responses to the ballot test that it’s again apparent how partisan lines have hardened, and those alignments benefit Moore.”

“Last time, those more likely to support Moore over the allegations favored him over Jones 84-13% – now, the margin of support for Moore is 90-9%,” it added. “Those saying the incident makes them less likely to support Moore favored Jones 81-9% in the last poll and 84-6% now. However, those saying the incident makes no difference favored Moore 51-39% last time, but Moore now leads 62-30% among this group. In other words, existing partisan attitudes that are keeping President Trump’s approval ratings in Alabama above 50% are now benefitting Moore as well.”

Follow Jeff Poor on Twitter @jeff_poor


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