Florida US Senate Poll: Scott Holds Narrow Lead Over Nelson — Up 9 Points Among Older Voters


A forthcoming Politico/AARP poll has Republican Gov. Rick Scott up in his effort to unseat Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson as the Sunshine State’s senior U.S. Senator.

According to a Politico story from Marc Caputo, the poll shows Scott leading Nelson a by 40 percent to 39 percent edge. However, when older voters are isolated, respondents described as “among those nearing or at retirement age,” Scott’s lead expands to nine points.

As Caputo pointed out, those older voters make up the majority of Florida’s electorate.

The Politico/AARP poll surveyed 1,199 Florida voters on May 29-30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. For the voters 50 and older, the poll surveyed 676 Florida voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Recent polling of this U.S. Senate race backs the trend shown by the Politico/AARP poll. According to a Florida Chamber of Commerce poll conducted by Cherry Communications released last week has Scott up 48-45 with 5 percent undecided.  A Florida Atlantic University poll from last month showed Scott with a four-point lead over Nelson, 44 percent to 40 percent.

The polling contradicts the notion Democrats are on the precipice of riding a so-called “blue wave” in November given Florida has traditionally been a swing state. Even though Florida went for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election, Barack Obama carried it in 2012, which shows Florida is a place that Democrats can win statewide.

Follow Jeff Poor on Twitter @jeff_poor