Polls Show Elizabeth Warren Running Risk of Losing Her Home State Massachusetts

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is running the risk of losing her own state, Massachusetts, on Super Tuesday, according to polls released this week.

Warren, who was once considered a top-tier candidate and frontrunner by some, has slipped in national polls. She failed to perform strongly in the first primary and caucus contests, garnering just eight pledged delegates following the races in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.

Her campaign is hoping to make a splash on Super Tuesday, where roughly one-third of the party’s pledged delegates are available. Her competitors, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Joe Biden (D), appear to be leading the field in most Super Tuesday states — particularly delegate-rich states like California and Texas. What is more, Warren does not appear to have a firm grip on her own state: Massachusetts, where 91 delegates are up for grabs.

Polls taken over the course of the last week show, at best, Warren leading by a slim margin. Most, however, show her falling behind Sanders.

A WBUR poll, taken among 426 likely voters and released last week, showed Sanders leading with 25 percent support — eight points ahead of Warren, who saw 17 percent support. His lead is well outside of the survey’s +/- 4.9 percent margin of error.

A SUPRC/Globe/WBZ-TV poll released over the weekend showed Sanders edging Warren out by two points, and a Swayable poll, released Tuesday was even more unkind, showing Warren dropping to fourth place in her home state:

Massachusetts Dem primary poll (Mar 1-2, N=917)
Bernie Sanders 27.0
Michael Bloomberg 17.9
Joe Biden 17.3
Elizabeth Warren 14.6
Pete Buttigieg 11.0
Amy Klobuchar 5.0
Tom Steyer 3.7
Other 3.0
Tulsi Gabbard 0.5
(MoE = 4.0) #polling #supertuesday2020

— Swayable (@swayable) March 3, 2020

#NEW #SuperTuesday @swayable Polls (3/1-2):#Minnesota:
Sanders 27
Klobuchar 21
Biden 20
Bloomberg 14
Warren 8
Buttigeig 4#Massachusetts:
Sanders 27
Bloomberg 18
Biden 17
Warren 15
Buttigieg 11
Klobuchar 5
Steyer 4

The rest 1% or less

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) March 3, 2020

A Data Progress poll, perhaps the most positive for Warren, showed the presidential hopeful with a two-point lead in her home state:

#NEW Massachusetts @DataProgress Poll:
Warren 28
Sanders 26
Biden 26
Bloomberg 15
Gabbard 2

Buttigieg 2
Klobuchar 1

(Poll Conducted 2/28-3/2)

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) March 3, 2020

Warren’s campaign is signaling that, regardless of Super Tuesday’s outcome, she is in the race for the long haul.

“We expect Elizabeth to have a strong delegate performance on Super Tuesday, and see the race narrowing considerably once all the votes are counted,” Warren’s campaign manager Roger Lau wrote in a Medium post ahead of Super Tuesday.

Lau indicated that Warren’s campaign is expecting — even banking on — a contested convention scenario.

“But as the dust settles after March 3, the reality of this race will be clear: no candidate will likely have a path to the majority of delegates needed to win an outright claim to the Democratic nomination,” he said.

“In the road to the nomination, the Wisconsin primary is halftime, and the convention in Milwaukee is the final play,” he continued, adding that Warren’s campaign is “built to compete in every state and territory and ultimately prevail at the national convention in Milwaukee.”