Poll: Republican David Young Ahead of Democrat Incumbent in Bid to Retake Iowa’s Third District

Former Rep. David Young (R-IA) is leading Rep. Cindy Axne (D-IA) in Iowa’s third congressional district, according to a poll released Tuesday.

The Tarrance Group conducted a poll on behalf of the Young campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) which found Young beating Axne 44 to 43 percent, while six percent of voters prefer Libertarian Bryan Jack Holder and seven percent remain undecided.

Further, the poll found Young has improved his chances of taking back the seat compared to a March poll. In March, Axne and Young were tied at 48 percent each, with five percent of voters that remain undecided.

The survey also found that a majority of voters, or 57 percent, approve of President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy.

“That number has not moved all year and remains strong,” the survey memo read.

The Tarrance Group wrote that Iowa’s third congressional district represents one of the best opportunities for Republicans to take back a Democrat-held seat:

One of the best chances for taking back a congressional seat in 2020 is right here. Young is slightly ahead in the contest today. The rematch between Axne and Young is within the margin of error, but it is significant that a Libertarian candidate does not diminish Young’s chances at regaining the seat.

Axne defeated Young during the 2018 midterm elections by 2.2 percentage points.

The Tarrance Group has also conducted polls for other battleground districts, which found that House Republicans congressional candidates have gained increasing momentum ahead of the 2020 congressional elections.

The group found that former Rep. Scott Taylor (R-VA) is tied with Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA) in Virginia’s second congressional district.

Another recent poll found that former NFL Superbowl champion Burgess Owens (R-UT) leads Rep. Ben McAdams (D-UT) in Utah’s fourth congressional district.

Although Democrats control three of the four congressional districts in Iowa, Republicans have increasing momentum that could help them retake the state’s swing districts.

Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate announced in July that Iowa Republicans had surpassed Democrats in active voter registration.

Jeff Kaufmann, the chairman of the Iowa GOP, said in a statement in July that the Iowa Republican Party has only continued to increase its grassroots network across the state:

With enthusiasm on our side, Republicans will only continue to increase our voter registration advantage in the coming months. This is why ground games are important. While Sleepy Joe and the Democrats picked up and left this state immediately after the caucuses, the Trump campaign has been on the ground since last fall, speaking with Iowans and getting them registered to vote. In fact, they have already made one million voter contacts.

He added, “There’s no doubt we are in a good position to keep Iowa red in November.”

Sean Moran is a congressional reporter for Breitbart News. Follow him on Twitter @SeanMoran3.