Florida Poll: Joe Biden, Donald Trump Statistically Tied in the Sunshine State

FILE - In this combination of file photos, former Vice President Joe Biden speaks in Wilmington, Del., on March 12, 2020, left, and President Donald Trump speaks at the White House in Washington on April 5, 2020. (AP Photo, File)
AP Photo, File

President Donald Trump and Democrat presidential candidate Joe Biden are statistically tied in Florida, a University of North Florida poll found.

According to the survey, 48 percent of Florida voters back the former vice president, while 47 percent support Trump. Biden’s one percent lead is within the survey’s +/- 3.3 percent margin of error, pointing to a virtual tie.

University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) conducted the survey last week, October 12-16, among 863 likely voters.

The results represent a significant swing in Trump’s direction over the past few weeks. A UNF poll conducted two days after the first presidential debate showed Biden leading Trump by six percentage points — 51 percent to the president’s 45 percent.

Dr. Michael Binder, PORL faculty director and associate professor of political science, said the results indicate that November 3 “might be a long night.”

“While some polls have shown Biden with a big lead in Florida and other key states, we made an effort to capture hard-to-reach voters and our results suggest that it might be a long night on Nov. 3,” Binder said, adding that he expects the race to “come down to the wire.”

Voters were virtually split on Trump’s job approval, with 49 percent disapproving and 47 percent approving. The survey also found a plurality of voters indicating that they would vote by mail, followed by 29 percent who said they would vote early. Just over a quarter, or 26 percent, of voters said they would vote on November 3.

On Monday, the first day of early voting for the majority of Florida counties, voters broke records, with an estimated 350,000 casting their ballots — tens of thousands more than the 291,000 who cast their ballots on the first day of early voting four years ago.

Tuesday’s RealClearPolitics average reflected a narrowing race in Florida, with Biden leading by one percent.

Trump secured a victory in Florida in 2016 by fewer than 113,000 votes.

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