2020 Election Data: Donald Trump Increased Margins with Females and All Races Except White Men

US President Donald Trump pumps his fists as he arrives for a "Make America Great Again" rally at Minges Coliseum in Greenville, North Carolina, on July 17, 2019. (Photo by Nicholas Kamm / AFP) (Photo by NICHOLAS KAMM/AFP via Getty Images)
NICHOLAS KAMM/AFP via Getty Images

Election data from 2020 indicates former President Donald Trump increased his margins with females and all races and demographics except white men.

“Women of color were the most swayed by Trump’s style of governing,” Matt Bruenig, founder of the left-wing think tank People’s Policy Project, tweeted the findings from the Catalist.

The Catalist wrote of their findings:

Along with massive increases in turnout, Latino vote share as a whole swung towards Trump by 8 points in two-way vote share compared to 2016, though Biden-Harris still enjoyed solid majority (61%) support among this group.

Some of the shift from 2016 appears to be a result of changing voting preferences among people who voted in both elections, and some may come from new voters who were more evenly split in their vote choice than previous Latino voters. This question presents particularly challenging data analysis problems, which we discuss more in a dedicated section below.

Bruenig also said the overall 2020 numbers indicate Trump won the 2016 election over Hillary Clinton because she was a poor candidate.

“Things are shifting below these headline numbers (e.g. in 2020, support for Trump became blacker, browner, and more female) but the basic story of Trump’s 2016 victory is just that Hillary was a remarkably bad candidate,” asserted Bruenig. “The new Catalist data seems to line up with my theory that all the Big Think about the 2016 election was mistaken.”

“Trump did not do any better than usual (in fact slightly worse). It’s just that hillary did way worse than usual, with the balance heading to third parties,” Bruenig explained.


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