Poll: Arizona Gubernatorial Race Wide Open as Voters Splinter on Which Party Should Control the Governor’s Office

The Arizona governor’s race is wide open as voters splinter on which party they prefer to run the governor’s office, an OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) survey released this week found.

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) is unable to run again due to term limits, meaning Arizonans will select a new leader in November 2021. Six “major” Republicans have since jumped into the race, and while it is still early and over half of GOP primary voters have yet to decide who they would support, former FOX 10 News anchor Kari Lake is leading the current pack, garnering 25 percent support from Republican primary voters. Former U.S. Representative Matt Salmon came in second with nine percent support, followed by State Treasurer Kimberly Yee who drew six percent support. The remaining candidates saw five percent support or less.

Former New York City Police Commissioner Bernie Kerik has endorsed Salmon, citing his “long, proven record of backing the blue.”

“He will defend our men and women in uniform against the far-left activists who want to defund the police, and he’ll give the boot to nosy federal bureaucrats who try to stick their nose into the affairs of local police departments,” Kerik said in a statement.

The state’s Democrat primary, however, has more of a clear leader, as 40 percent of Democrat voters indicate their intention to support outspoken Trump critic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, whom the Republican National Committee (RNC) is intervening against over her attempts disregard the Supreme Court’s election integrity ruling.

“Two other candidates – former Nogales Mayor Marco Lopez and former State Representative Aaron Lieberman – are challenging Hobbs for the Democratic nomination. They are currently polling at 10% and 8%, respectively,” according to the survey.

Overall, however, the race is more uncertain, as voters are virtually split on which party they want in charge. Thirty-nine percent say they want a Republican to control the governor’s office, compared to 36 percent who say a Democrat and 25 percent who remain unsure. The GOP’s 3-point edge is within the survey’s margin of error.

“In the ramp-up to the Governor’s race, the leading Republican and Democratic candidates’ first hurdle is to cross the 50% threshold and hold that support until next November,” Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research said in a statement.

“However, with such a split in voters’ preference for a Republican or Democratic candidate, winning over Arizona’s fast-growing Independents will be key to securing the majority vote for Governor,” he concluded.

The survey, conducted September 7-12, 2021, among 882 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percent.