A cadre of outside Democrat groups have locked in millions of dollars in ad reservations in the final month plus of the elections in both Washington’s and Colorado’s senate races, a sign the election is not going according to plan for the left.
Per data from an advertising tracking service reviewed by Breitbart News, in Washington the outside left-wing group Women Vote has reserved more than a million dollars worth of television ads in the final weeks of the race in an effort to boost struggling incumbent Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) in her bid to hold off Republican candidate Tiffany Smiley.
While that seems like a lot, between two different groups—Giffords PAC and 53 Peaks—pro-Democrat groups have reserved north of $3 million worth of television ad time in Colorado to boost lagging incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) in his bid to hold off Republican candidate Joe O’Dea.
Recent polling has shown both races tightening, with a new poll out this week in Washington showing Smiley virtually tied with Murray—trailing her by two points, inside the survey’s margin of error.
If Republicans take either of these races, the GOP’s chances at retaking the U.S. Senate majority significantly improve. The U.S. Senate is split 50-50 between Republicans and Democrats, meaning Republicans need to take just a net one seat back from Democrats to retake control of the chamber. While that sounds easy, Republicans are playing defense in many battleground states–defending seats in Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin—and have few easy opportunities to take seats back from Democrats.
The GOP’s best pickup opportunities include Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, but Republicans also could flip seats in New Hampshire, Colorado, Washington, Vermont, or Connecticut.
Republicans currently lead in polling in most of the states they need to win to retake the majority, with public polls showing GOP leads in Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Georgia. Public polling has also shown both Pennsylvania and Arizona swinging back the GOP’s way, with one survey out late Monday night showing GOP candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz in a virtual tie with Democrat Lt. Gov. John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, while several recent public polls have shown the GOP’s Blake Masters closing in on Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) out west.
If Republicans take all of those—Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona—they will have at least 53 seats in the Senate next year. That means they would have the majority even before considering seats like these two where Democrats are panic-spending–Colorado and Washington–or states like New Hampshire or Vermont or Connecticut where Republicans are bullish on their chances.
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