Texas Gov. Greg Abbott Leads Democrat Challenger Beto O’Rourke by Double Digits

COLLEGE STATION, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 06: Texas governor Greg Abbott on the field before the T
Bob Levey/Getty Images, Brandon Bell/Getty Images
Hannah Knudsen

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) is enjoying a double-digit lead against Democrat challenger Robert Francis O’Rourke, a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll released this week found.

The election is less than three weeks away, and Abbott is enjoying a comfortable lead against his Democrat challenger, leading O’Rourke by 11 percent, or 54 percent to the Democrat’s 43 percent. Abbott’s lead is well outside of that particular sample’s +/- 3.30 percent margin of error.

Immigration and border security emerged as one of the most important issues (32 percent) to Texas voters. This bodes well for Abbott, who made national headlines after busing migrants to blue jurisdictions across the country, including New York City, Chicago, and Washington, DC. Fifty-four percent, per the survey, supported that decision. 

The state economy came in second place, with 14 percent choosing that as the most important issue for their vote. The top issues of Republicans seemed to align more closely with the top issues of voters overall, as most are concerned with immigration and border security, as well as the economy. However, Democrat priorities, per the poll, were “more dispersed, with four issues being cited as most important by 10% or more: the largest share of Democrats is focused on abortion (26%), followed by gun violence (16%), the environment/climate change (13%), and healthcare (10%).”

According to the survey:

  • State spending on border security. 30% of Texans say the state spends too much on border security while a nearly equal share, 30%, composed mainly of a majority of Republicans, 88%, say that the state spends too little on border security. About a quarter, 24%, say the state spends about the right amount, while 17% expressed no opinion.
  • Texas abortion laws. Half of Texans say abortion laws in Texas should be made “less strict”, while 25% say they should be left as they are now, and 18% say they should be more strict.
  • Gun control laws. 55% of Texans say gun control laws should be made more strict, the highest share saying so over 11 polls conducted since 2015. In the latest poll, 24% say gun laws should be left as they are, and 15% say they should be less strict.

The full survey was taken October 7-17, 2022, among 1,200 self-declared registered voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.83 percent. 

The support for “less strict” abortion laws could benefit O’Rourke, as he has attempted to position himself as a pro-abortion champion for women. However, he is one of many Democrats nationwide who are unwilling to openly support any restrictions on abortion. When asked about this in August, O’Rourke could not even bring himself to support a limit on partial-birth abortion:

Friday’s RealClearPolitics average showed Abbott leading the Democrat by 8.7 percent.

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