Poll: Rick Caruso Catches Karen Bass in Race for L.A. Mayor as Voting Begins

Billionaire developer and insurgent candidate Rick Caruso (D) has caught up to Rep. Karen Bass (D-CA) in a poll released as voting begins in the race for Los Angeles mayor. Caruso now leads Bass, 39.8% to 36.8%, within the poll’s 4.9% margin of error.

The poll, by J. Wallin Opinion Research, was conducted Oct. 15-17 among 400 likely voters, and is the first poll to be taken in the wake of a massive scandal at City Hall in which Democratic leaders on the City Council were recorded making racist and antisemitic remarks.

The poll also found that 58% of Los Angeles voters — including a majority of Democrats — feel that the city is on the wrong track at the end of outgoing Mayor Eric Garcetti’s two terms in office, even as he enjoys fawning attention from some local media outlets.

Cover story at ⁦@LAmag⁩: Outgoing mayor ⁦@ericgarcetti⁩ laughs as he leaves behind crime, homelessness, and racial division. The article presumes he is going to be Ambassador to India despite his lacking the votes in the Senate. It’s good to be a Democrat in this town pic.twitter.com/CCgZ0bjnZo

— Joel Pollak (@joelpollak) October 21, 2022

Respondents mentioned homelessness, crime, inflation, and housing as the most important issues, in that order. Caruso led Bass on every issue, though the pollster noted that his lead was only significant on the question of who would best handle the city’s finances.

Caruso’s improvement comes after a poll early this month showed him even among registered voters, but trailing by double digits among likely voters. Analysts speculated that he would need to work hard to motivate more voters to tun out to vote for him.

That appears to be happening, as Politico notes that Caruso is benefiting from a massive, self-funded ad campaign: “Caruso has blanketed the airwaves in one of the most expensive media markets in the U.S., spending more than $81 million compared to $11 million by Bass, according to the Los Angeles City Ethics Commission.”

Caruso appears to be peaking at the right time, as voters have been receiving vote-by-mail ballots, and some have begun to return them ahead of the November 8 postmarking deadline.

Throughout the election, Bass has campaigned on her support from traditional Democratic Party constituencies and institutions, while Caruso, the political outsider, has appealed to public discontent with the way the city is being run by career politicians.

Joel B. Pollak is Senior Editor-at-Large at Breitbart News and the host of Breitbart News Sunday on Sirius XM Patriot on Sunday evenings from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. ET (4 p.m. to 7 p.m. PT). He is the author of the recent e-book, Neither Free nor Fair: The 2020 U.S. Presidential Election. His recent book, RED NOVEMBER, tells the story of the 2020 Democratic presidential primary from a conservative perspective. He is a winner of the 2018 Robert Novak Journalism Alumni Fellowship. Follow him on Twitter at @joelpollak.