Final Rasmussen Poll: GOP Leads Generic Congressional Ballot by 5 Points

(Mario Tama, Jeff Swensen, Olivier Touron, Lev Radin, Drew Angerer/Getty Images; Paul Sanc
M. Tama, J. Swensen, O. Touron, L. Radin, D. Angerer/Getty Images; P. Sancya/AP

Republicans lead Rasmussen Reports’ final generic congressional ballot by five points heading into next week’s midterm election.

Four days before the election, Republicans lead by five points on the generic ballot, the same generic ballot a GOP candidate has led all year. Of the 2,500 likely voters who responded to the poll, 48 percent said they would vote for the GOP candidate, while only 43 percent said the Democrat candidate.

Only three percent said they would vote for another candidate, while six percent said they were still unsure.

With only days left before the election, the Republicans leading on the generic ballot is a good sign for the party wanting to net at least five seats in the election to take back the majority in the House of Representatives, which would ultimately end Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s speakership.

As Rasmussen has noted in the past, the week before the 2018 midterm election, the margins on the generic ballot stayed extremely close, with Republicans actually having a one-point advantage nationally, 46 percent to 45 percent.

This poll found that the Republican Party also showed a huge 13-point lead with independents over Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 46 percent said they would vote for the Republican candidate. In comparison, only 33 percent said they would vote for the Democrat candidate, with 13 percent still undecided.

Additionally, 33 percent of black voters and 44 percent of other minority groups said they would vote for the Republican candidate if the election were held today. A Democrat candidate would garner support from 56 percent of black voters and 40 percent of other minority groups.

Furthermore, there is a difference in voter intensity between the parties, with 88 percent of Republican voters saying they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate and 84 percent of Democrats saying the same thing.

The Rasmussen Reports survey was conducted from October 30 to November 3 and questioned 2,500 likely U.S. voters. The survey had a two percent margin of error and a 95 percent confidence level.

Jacob Bliss is a reporter for Breitbart News. Write to him at or follow him on Twitter @JacobMBliss.


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