Poll: Donald Trump Opens Up 41-point Lead over GOP Primary Field

Former US President Donald Trump speaks at the Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida, on
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Nick Gilbertson

Former President Donald Trump has opened up a 41-point lead over the rest of the Republican primary field, according to Morning Consult, marking his largest advantage yet in the polling outfit’s weekly “2024 GOP Primary Tracker” poll.

The poll published Tuesday, shows that a clear majority of 60 percent of potential Republican primary voters back Trump for the nomination, while Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) sits in second place at 19 percent. The gap between them grew a net seven points compared to last week when Trump held 56 percent support to DeSantis’s 22 percent. Moreover, the divide has widened 21 points since mid-February, when Trump’s support registered at 50 percent, and DeSantis had 30 percent.

No other candidate reaches double digits in the latest poll. Five percent of respondents back former Vice President Mike Pence, while another five percent support businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. Former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) has three percent support, and former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) is at two percent.

Govs. Greg Abbott (R-TX) and Kristi Noem (R-SD), Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), and former Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR) each garner just one percent support.

The poll also asked Trump and DeSantis voters who their second choices were, finding they take the lion’s share of each other’s support. Of Trump backers, 42 percent identify DeSantis as their second choice, while 15 percent say Pence and 10 percent say Ramaswamy. Haley is the second option among four percent of Trump supporters.

Similarly, Trump is the second choice for 43 percent of those who support DeSantis. Haley takes the second most of those respondents with 13 percent, followed by Pence (12 percent) and Ramaswamy (11 percent.)

The Republican primary portion of the poll included 3,547 respondents, and the margin of error is plus or minus 1-2 percentage points.

Moreover, Morning Consult gauged potential general election match-ups between each of the  first- and second-place Republicans and President Joe Biden. In a rematch of the 2020 election, Biden takes 44 percent to Trump’s 42 percent, while 10 percent would back someone else, and 4 percent do not know who they would support.

Biden performs better against DeSantis. Again, he takes 44 percent of the vote, while 40 percent back the Florida governor. Another nine percent would vote for another person, while four percent are undecided.

Morning Consult sampled 6,000 registered voters for this portion of the poll, and the margin of error is plus or minus one percent. All samples were taken between May 5-7.

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