*** Speaker Election Livewire *** Jim Jordan Tries Again as Republicans Barrel Towards Red Wedding

Matthew Boyle
Washington, DC

A handful of establishment Republicans blocked Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) from locking down the speakership on Tuesday, so Jordan and the vast majority of House Republicans are set to try again on Wednesday.

Jordan got 200 votes Tuesday on the House floor–more than double the votes he got a week earlier in his first intra-conference vote–as he continued to show massive movement his way in each subsequent vote. He got 124 votes in his second intra-conference vote, then 152 votes in his third one. His first floor vote saw 200 votes–and he will pick up at least two more in the next vote as Reps. Gus Bilirakis (R-FL), who was absent for a funeral but has now returned, and Doug LaMalfa (R-CA), who voted for former Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Tuesday but said he will vote for Jordan in the next rounds, will back him.

But the real question for Jordan is whether he loses anyone else in the process. Jordan could see some of his supporters from Tuesday’s vote drop, and many of the remaining 19 besides LaMalfa who opposed him remain steadfast in their opposition.

After originally planning to bring the House back for another vote on Tuesday evening with Bilirakis’s return and LaMalfa’s conversion, Jordan called off the effort and decided to wait until Wednesday morning at 11:00 a.m. ET when the House will reconvene and try again. Many observers expect Jordan to lose more support before he has a shot at rallying back–and it is unclear how many ballots many Republicans will stick with him for.

It’s worth noting that when McCarthy went through a multi-ballot process back in January he had the same number of original defections–20. McCarthy actually subsequently lost more on future ballots, but days later finally broke through and rallied the support he needed to flip some back and sealed the deal on future ballots. So while some in media might be quick to write Jordan off now, if McCarthy could survive more defections and then rally back later it’s certainly possible Jordan could and do the same.

Meanwhile, Democrats are increasingly open to entertaining the possibility of voting with Republicans to empower acting Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry. That would keep McHenry out of the presidential line of succession, and they would likely extract a heavy price from Republicans–on things like impeachment, appropriations, committee structures, and more–for their votes. But a growing number of Republicans are open to the idea as well and it is beginning to become a real possibility.

The threat of that type of a structure might nudge Republicans towards finally picking a GOP speaker–Jordan seems to be the only one with a pathway to getting there after House Majority Leader Steve Scalise failed last week. Other names floated, like House Majority Whip Tom Emmer or Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) or more, would likely face similar problems as McCarthy and Scalise did, and now Jordan is going through.

A huge part of this story seems to be Scalise’s resentment at Jordan after his failure to get there last week. Scalise only mustered 110 votes from voting members in conference, though, which is less than a majority of the 221-member majority. Now, though, Scalise seems to be taking out his anger on Jordan–many of the 19 holdouts are Scalise allies and Scalise refuses to tell them to stand down and refused to give a nominating speech for Jordan on the floor Tuesday–which led to nasty, bitter infighting pouring into the public eye on Tuesday evening between GOP leaders.

So while it’s definitely still possible for Jordan to get there, and he very well could sort out these issues with Scalise, if Jordan does not get there, this chaos in the House GOP conference that has been ongoing for 15 days now since McCarthy’s ouster as Speaker risks getting even worse. Some are talking about removing Scalise as Majority Leader of the House GOP conference if he doesn’t fix the situation. Others are talking about primary opponents lining up against the anti-Jordan holdouts. Still more are talking about consequences for the original eight who deposed McCarthy. In other words: Either the GOP figures this out and elects Jordan on Wednesday — or sooner or later — or this game of thrones among Republicans has the potential to get much, much worse and devolve into a red wedding level civil war where nobody is safe.

Follow along here on Breitbart News for live updates as Jordan tries again–and the GOP decides if it wants a bloody civil war of epic proportions or if it wants to get back to governing.

UPDATE 1:28 p.m. ET:

Jordan is standing firm and planning for an eventual third ballot:

UPDATE 1:18 p.m. ET:

McHenry comes back, reads the vote totals, and then takes the House into recess. What happens next remains to be seen. Jordan did better than expected on that second round, but he needs to get movement his way soon among the remaining holdouts.

UPDATE 1:08 p.m. ET:

This was actually a stronger than expected showing for Jordan as he flipped two back, but lost four others–and picked up Bilirakis too upon his return. Jordan is definitely still alive.

There is some question now as to what happens next–whether the House moves to consider Jordan again, goes to consideration of a measure to empower McHenry that Republicans including McHenry have dismissed, or if they go into a conference meeting or recess.

UPDATE 12:59 p.m. ET:

A revised count is actually 199 votes for Jordan, 212 votes for Jeffries, and 22 votes for others. Jordan only netted one loss technically, far better than many in media were predicting. How he proceeds from here remains to be seen.

UPDATE 12:58 p.m. ET:

Conservatives nationally are already rallying behind primary opponents of the Republicans opposed to Jordan:

The chaos these members are sowing is leading to more and more uncertainty and instability.

UPDATE 12:56 p.m. ET:

Payne shows up and votes for Jeffries. Spartz comes in and flips and to Jordan. Another big pickup for Jordan.

Tlaib shows up and votes for Jeffries. Trone does the same.

That puts the total at 198 for Jordan, 213 for Jeffries, and 22 for other candidates.

What happens next is unclear, but a speaker has not been elected. So a third ballot is imminent, though as of now it is unclear when that will be.

UPDATE 12:54 p.m. ET:

Rep. Steve Womack (R-AR) again votes for Scalise, making him defector 22.

Jordan has 197 votes, Jeffries has 210, and others have 22. The clerk is beginning to call the names of those who did not vote.

UPDATE 12:51 p.m. ET:

Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) misses her name in the roll call. She is a clear Jeffries supporter, so she must be outside the chamber. Rep. David Trone (D-MD) has the same thing happen.

UPDATE 12:49 p.m. ET:

Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN), who voted against Jordan on Tuesday, misses her name in the roll call.

Rep. Pete Stauber (R-MN) becomes another new defector as he votes for Rep. Bruce Westerman (R-AR).

UPDATE 12:47 p.m. ET:

Rep. Mike Simpson (R-ID) becomes defector 20 as he again votes for Scalise.

UPDATE 12:46 p.m. ET:

Rep. John Rutherford (R-FL), the do-nothing congressman from Jacksonville, Florida, votes against Republicans and for Scalise again. He is very likely to face a very serious primary challenger for his continued transgressions against the country. He is the 19th defector.

Moments later, Scalise votes for Jordan again.

UPDATE 12:43 p.m. ET:

Payne misses the vote. Pelosi votes for Jeffries and Democrats cheer her.

Meanwhile, Gimenez says he is “OK” or “Only Kevin” meaning only McCarthy:

But supporting temporarily empowering McHenry is in fact not actually only supporting McCarthy so that position is actually inherently inconsistent.

UPDATE 12:40 p.m. ET:

Jordan loses another one as Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) votes for Rep. Kay Granger (R-TX). She is defector 18 on this vote.

UPDATE 12:38 p.m. ET:

McHenry votes for Jordan.

UPDATE 12:37 p.m. ET:

Applause among Republicans as McCarthy votes for Jordan.

UPDATE 12:36 p.m. ET:

Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) again votes for McCarthy. He is defector 17.

UPDATE 12:35 p.m. ET:

Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA) votes for McCarthy making her defector 15. Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY) votes for Zeldin making him defector 16.

But then Jordan gets his first flip back as LaMalfa as expected votes for him.

UPDATE 12:33 p.m. ET:

Rep. Mike Kelly (R-PA) votes for former House Speaker John Boehner. He is defector number 14.

UPDATE 12:32 p.m. ET:

Again, applause for Jordan among Republicans when he votes for himself and for Jeffries among Democrats when he does the same.

UPDATE 12:31 p.m. ET:

Rep. John James (R-MI) voted for former Rep. Candice Miller (R-MI), making him the 13th defector.

UPDATE 12:27 p.m. ET:

Rep. Kay Granger (R-TX) votes for Scalise. That’s defector number 12.

UPDATE 12:26 p.m. ET:

Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-FL) votes for McCarthy, and Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) votes for Scalise. That makes 10 and 11 defectors.

UPDATE 12:25 p.m. ET:

Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-NY) again votes for Zeldin, making him defector number 9.

UPDATE 12:24 p.m. ET:

Rep. Jake Ellzey (R-TX) voted for Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA) again, making him defector number 7. Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-GA) votes for Scalise making him defector number 8–Ferguson is the second member, after Buchanan, that Jordan lost on this second ballot.

UPDATE 12:22 p.m. ET:

Defector five is Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY) who votes for former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY) again, and Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-FL) again votes for Scalise making him defector six. Jordan will not get there on this ballot now.

UPDATE 12:18 p.m. ET:

Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR) becomes the fourth defector against Jordan, voting for McCarthy.

UPDATE 12:16 p.m. ET:

Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-FL), who voted for Jordan on Tuesday, flips against him and votes for Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL). Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO) votes for Emmer. There are now three defections–and Jordan’s defectors gained one with Buchanan’s vote.

UPDATE 12:14 p.m. ET:

Bilirakis, who was absent on Tuesday, votes for Jordan.

UPDATE 12:13 p.m. ET:

Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) becomes the first Jordan defector again, voting for McCarthy instead.

UPDATE 12:12 p.m. ET:

The vote is beginning now after Jordan opponents did not nominate an alternative candidate.

UPDATE 12:08 p.m. ET:

Now, Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-CA)–the Democrat conference chairman–is nominating House Democrat Leader Hakeem Jeffries for Speaker again. He is attacking Jordan aggressively again, just like he did on Tuesday.

UPDATE 11:58 a.m. ET:

The Democrat missing is Rep. Donald Payne (D-NJ):

UPDATE 11:57 a.m. ET:

Cole is making the argument that a vote for Jordan is an end to the “chaos” and “uncertainty” going on since the ouster of McCarthy. This argument is likely to be very persuasive for moderates.

UPDATE 11:55 a.m. ET:

Cole is now at the microphone formally nominating Jordan for Speaker.

UPDATE 11:54 a.m. ET:

The quorum call is over, and one Democrat is absent. That means there are 432 members present. It basically means Jordan still needs 217 to win if everyone votes for a person, but it could change the math if he convinces some to vote present.

UPDATE 11:51 a.m. ET:

It’s worth noting the conservative grassroots is as fired up as ever for Jordan and wants him to get there. If he doesn’t, these folks are going to be very, very, very upset–and exact revenge on the people responsible for possible Jordan failure:

UPDATE 11:36 a.m. ET:

One member worth watching is Rep. John James (R-MI). It’s possible he flips to back Jordan on Wednesday after voting against Jordan on Tuesday:

UPDATE 11:30 a.m. ET:

McHenry reportedly does not want the efforts to empower him to succeed:

UPDATE 11:21 a.m. ET:

House Democrat Leader Hakeem Jeffries expresses openness to the efforts to empower McHenry:

UPDATE 11:17 a.m. ET:

For what it’s worth, Emmer is predicting Jordan will win today:

That seems particularly optimistic given the circumstances.

But also, Emmer is bashing the resolution to empower McHenry:

UPDATE 11:15 a.m. ET:

The House is currently voting on a quorum call, which establishes attendance levels. If all members are present given two vacancies, the threshold for Jordan to win is 217 votes. There are 221 voting Republicans, so Jordan can only afford to lose 4 votes.

UPDATE 11:13 a.m. ET:

Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK), the House Rules Committee chairman, will give the nominating speech for Jordan on the second ballot:

This is notable because again Scalise is not doing it. Seeing what Scalise and his allies do is going to be critical as this process continues.

UPDATE 11:10 a.m. ET:

McHenry is bringing the House into session now, and the chaplain is reading a prayer.

UPDATE 11:00 a.m. ET:

A top House GOP aide sends along this video, a clip of Cersei Lannister from Game of Thrones, which they say explains what is happening inside the House GOP conference right now:

UPDATE 10:59 a.m. ET:

As expected, a top Jordan ally Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA)–the chairman of the House Freedom Caucus–is predicting Jordan will lose votes on ballot number two:

Meanwhile, Jordan is trying to snuff out the attempt to empower McHenry early and call a vote on that measure too:

It’s anybody’s guess how this all shakes out.

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