Poll: Donald Trump Leads Joe Biden Among Independents

Former President Donald Trump speaks in Clinton Township, Mich., Wednesday, Sept. 27, 2023
Mike Mulholland/AP
Hannah Knudsen

Former President Donald Trump has an advantage over President Joe Biden among independent voters, Cygnal’s November poll found.

Not only do independent voters view Trump more favorably — six points higher than Biden — they also prefer Trump over Biden, 44 percent to the incumbent’s 38 percent support. In that scenario, 18 percent remain undecided.

While it is true that Biden leads Trump among all voters by two points, 47 percent to 45 percent, Biden performs even stronger when put against a generic Republican, boasting a four-point advantage. Further, the survey found that Biden leads by just one point when Democrat-turned-independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is thrown into the mix, as Trump garners 39 percent, compared to 40 percent for Biden and 12 percent for Kennedy.

Joe Biden, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Donald Trump

Joe Biden, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Donald Trump (Shawn Thew/EPA/Bloomberg, Jamie McCarth, James Devaney/GC Images/Getty Images)

Overall, Trump garners the largest share of support from independents in a three-way race, as 36 percent of independents support him, compared to 30 percent who choose Biden and 17 percent who prefer Kennedy.

The survey was taken from October 30 to November 1, 2023, among 2,000 likely general election voters. It has a +/- 2.16 percent margin of error.

The survey comes as Trump continues to have a strong showing in recent national- and state-level polls against Biden. A recent New York Times/Siena survey, for instance, showed Trump leading Biden in five of six crucial swing states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.

US President Donald Trump holds a campaign rally at HoverTech International in Allentown, Pennsylvania, October 26, 2020. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP) (Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)

Then-U.S. President Donald Trump holds a campaign rally at HoverTech International in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on October 26, 2020 (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP) (Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images).

Further, a recent Emerson College survey showed Trump leading Biden in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona and tying the 80-year-old in Wisconsin:

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