Michigan Poll: Biden Lags Behind Trump Ahead of 2024

President Joe Biden is trailing behind former President Donald Trump with likely voters in Michigan less than a year out from the 2024 election. 

Forty-one percent of 600 likely voters polled in the Great Lakes State support Biden compared to 46 percent who support Trump, an EPIC-MRA of Lansing poll released Saturday found. The margin of error is ±4 percentage points. 

“Democrats ought to be aware there is a growing possibility that Donald Trump may become president again,” EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn told the Detroit Free Press. He said support for Biden in the state has eroded since the firm’s last poll in August, when Biden narrowly led Trump 46 percent to 45 percent. 

“I think it’s his (Biden’s) age and comparative perceptions of him versus Trump,” Porn said. “People are dismissing the Bidenomics approach — they’re not impressed with that messaging … It could well be very difficult for Biden to do the things needed to recover.”

📊 2024 Michigan Pres. Election

(R) Trump 46% [+1]
(D) Biden 41% [-5]

[Change vs August]

EPIC-MRA (B+) | LVs | 11/10-16 | ±4%https://t.co/bGLLNbcbxK pic.twitter.com/k2huFPgaYH

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 18, 2023

The poll found eroding support for Biden in key voting blocs. For instance, while Democrats push abortion as a key issue, the survey found 28 percent of voters who identify as “pro-choice” support Trump, compared to 58 percent for Biden.

The survey also indicated a substantial drop in black voters’ support of Biden. In 2020, exit polls showed 92 percent of black voters in the state voted for Biden, while 7 percent voted for Trump. The new poll shows just 62 percent of black likely voters support Biden, and 17 percent support Trump. Twenty-one percent of black likely voters are undecided.

Trump also leads Biden among independent voters, the poll found. While 38 percent of independent voters are undecided, 45 percent support Trump and 18 support Biden.

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“And among the relatively small number of union members contacted for the survey, 47 percent supported Trump, compared to 40 percent for Biden and 13 percent undecided, despite the fact that Biden this fall became the first president to walk a picket line as the UAW struck the Detroit Three automakers for better wages and benefits,” the Free Press reported. 

Trump is leading Biden among all age groups except voters over 65, 46 percent to 37 percent with 17 percent undecided. The survey found that 48 percent of likely Michigan voters ages 18 to 34 support Trump over Biden (35 percent). Voters ages 35 to 49 support Trump 46 percent and Biden 39 percent, and 54 percent of voters ages 50 to 64 support Trump, compared to 34 percent who support Biden. 

“Biden retained a marked edge among college-educated voters, 49 percent to 37 percent with 13 percent undecided. But that’s well below the 17-point margin he had with those voters in the 2020 election,” according to the report. “Trump led among the larger cohort of voters without a college education 52 percent to 35 percent with 13 percent undecided. In 2020, Trump only had a five-point edge with those voters.”