Final Iowa Caucus Poll Shows Donald Trump with Commanding Lead, Haley in Second, DeSantis in Third

Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis
Chip Somodevilla/Win McNamee/Scott Olson/Getty Images
Matthew Boyle
Washington, DC

The final poll from a definitive pollster before the Iowa caucuses on Monday shows former President Donald Trump way out in front of the GOP pack with all the momentum the day before the first votes are cast in the contest.

In second place is former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and down in third place is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

The poll, from Emerson College, shows Trump at 55 percent, Haley at 21 percent, DeSantis at 15 percent, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy at 5 percent, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson at 2 percent. The survey of 562 likely caucus-goers was conducted from Feb. 11 to Feb. 13 and has a margin of error of 4.2 percent.

This survey comes on the heels of the vaunted final Des Moines Register poll released on Saturday evening, which painted a similar picture of the race. In that poll, Trump was at 48 percent, Haley was in second at 20 percent, and DeSantis was in third at 16 percent.

Most Republicans and observers are expecting a Trump victory on Monday night in the frigid state of Iowa, which has seen in recent days some of the coldest winter weather in history. Monday is not expected to let up, with wind chills in some parts of the state reaching far below zero.

Whether Trump can succeed and deliver not just a victory, but as resounding a victory as the polls suggest, is the biggest question heading into Monday. Prognosticators will be looking to see if Trump can hit majority support, as well as what margin he posts over whoever takes second place. What is more, who comes in second is nearly as important — and what margin they trail Trump by matters too.

If DeSantis, who spent months publicly predicting he would win the Iowa caucuses, comes in third — or really if he comes in at anything less than a very strong second-place finish — it will be hard for him to justify continuing his campaign beyond the Hawkeye State. Pressure is already building on him to drop out before votes are even cast, with National Review’s editor-in-chief Rich Lowry writing a column for Politico published late last week titled: “Ron DeSantis Will Have to Drop Out Unless He Stuns in Iowa.”

The Associated Press

Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis at the CNN Republican presidential debate at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa, Jan. 10, 2024. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

Questions exist for Haley too. If she does not come in second place as these latest surveys indicate she will, or if the margin by which she trails Trump is significant, many will begin to question her path forward as well — especially as her negatives rise as Trump and others intensify attacks on her. But since Haley did not bet it all on Iowa — she has been far more focused on New Hampshire — she has at least eight more days to prove she can sustain a long-term campaign as Republican primary voters in the Granite State head to the polls a week from Tuesday.

But again the biggest question will be whether Trump’s dominance translates into votes at the caucuses, and if it does, whether that signals lasting momentum in later contests in places like New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, Michigan, and on Super Tuesday. If Trump stuns on caucus night, he could be well on his way to wrapping up the Republican nomination quickly — but if his remaining challengers put up a fight, this could be a longer and more drawn-out process than he would have hoped for. The numbers will set the tone for what is next.

The Associated Press

Former President Donald Trump speaks during a news conference, Thursday, Jan. 11, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)

Trump’s continued imperviousness was evidenced not just by polls that came out this weekend but also by major endorsements he picked up, continuing a steady string of party unification behind his likely eventual general election bid. On Sunday in Iowa, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum — a one-time Trump rival in this race who ran for the GOP nominations before dropping out late last year — endorsed Trump. So did Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), another one-time Trump rival from the 2016 race who has since become one of the biggest backers of Trump’s America First policies on everything from trade to China to family values and more.

A day earlier, Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) — one of the top conservatives in the U.S. Senate — backed Trump formally, an endorsement that came after the entire House Republican leadership from Speaker Mike Johnson to Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Majority Whip Tom Emmer fell in line. House GOP conference chairwoman Elise Stefanik was a very early Trump supporter who endorsed his comeback bid right after he announced his campaign in late 2022.

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