ESPN reports FBI wiretaps recorded Arizona coach Sean Miller discussing an $100,000 payment to secure Deandre Ayton, now the fourth most valuable player in the country according to Value Add Basketball.
|Rnk||Player||Team||Value Add||New Kenpom||Drop in Rank|
|4||Deandre Ayton||Arizona||10.6||8.98||23rd to 88th|
|21||Wendell Carter||Duke||8.54||22.25||3rd to 11th|
|64||Miles Bridges||Michigan St.||7.26||22.63||4th to 10th|
|115||Collin Sexton||Alabama||6.56||10.18||43rd to 76th|
|174||Kevin Knox||Kentucky||5.99||14.74||25th to 46th|
|183||Chimezie Metu||USC||5.94||6.16||52nd to 102nd|
|569||Bennie Boatwright||USC||3.59||6.18||52nd to 102nd|
|748||Eric Davis||Texas||2.94||13.55||41st to 54th|
The most widely read computer ranking occurs at www.kenpom.com, where each team is rated for how many points above or below the average team would be in a given game. For example, Arizona has the 23rd best rating of 351 teams wtih an 18.71 rating, but subtracting Ayton’s Value Add rating of 8.98 lowers them to 9.72, and then the addition of a teams 7th best player (0.87 for Arizona) accounts for extra opportunities for replacement players. Thus if Ayton could not play anymore, Arizona would be particularly hard hit and drop to an 8.98 – only the 88th best team rating.
The alleged payments to other players on the table above are much lower – and their benches are deeper than Arizona’s meaning the impact is much less, except for USC who has two players in the report. Duke and Michigan State have much deeper benches and stronger seventh/replacement players, so even if Wendell Carter and Miles Bridges could not play due to the report Duke would only drop from 3rd to 11th and Michigan State would only drop from 4th to 10th.
However, Alabama, Kentucky and Texas would drop from NCAA teams to bubble teams if the NCAA were to account for their three players potentially not playing.
The alleged payments for past players ranged from $73,000 down to meals. The following is the list of the most valuable players in the report, and where they were ranked in their best year in the all-time Value Add list.
|2015||Fred VanVleet||Wichita State||8||9.64|
|2017||Dennis Smith||NC State||98||6.62|
|2016||Isaiah Whitehead||Seton Hall||118||6.13|