Surprise: Obama Up 1 in D+6 ABC Poll
The media should just go ahead and start filing in-kind contributions to the Obama campaign with the FEC. Its polls now are nothing but an attempt to create the false narrative that Obama is pulling away in the presidential race. But, even when they game the polls, it's becoming a tough story to sell. Today's Washington Post/ABC poll finds Obama leading Romney by 1 point among Likely Voters (LV). But, they have to use a D+6 sample to get there.
Today's ABC poll uses a sample that is (D/R/I) 33/27/36. This assumes that the electorate voting in November will be almost the same as the one that voted in 2008, when Democrats had a +7 advantage. Repeat after me: This is not going to happen.
In 2008, Obama was the Chauncey Gardner of politics. With a virtually non-existent record but great rhetorical skills, Obama was the repository for voters' idealistic visions of politicians. His election saw record turnout among young voters, hispanics and African-Americans. He took votes in deeply red areas of the country, where voters were fatigued by eight years of President Bush and reeling from the immediate after effects of the financial crisis. It was a perfect storm for Democrats, who scored their highest turnout in decades.
This year, with a dismal economy, massive debt and a junkyard of broken promises, Obama will not be able to assemble the same level of turnout. Yet, the media pretends that this election will be just like 2008, even though virtually every poll shows greater enthusiasm among GOP voters. Moreover, today's ABC poll finds Romney winning independents by 11 points, a margin similar to virtually every other poll.
Only by oversampling Democrats can ABC produce a poll with Obama in the lead. If the poll tried to match a more realistic scenario of the partisan composition of the electorate, Romney would have a clear lead. Probably in just about every poll.
The polls aren't really about accurately reflecting the state of the race. They are about creating a narrative designed to depress GOP turnout. For evidence of that, look no further than Politico, who ignored the LV result and only reported the Registered Voter match-up, which was more favorable to Obama. No serious objective media outlet would ignore a LV number, which everyone in Christendom understands is more accurate. But, then, Politico isn't a serious, objective media outlet.
It is frustrating to see the media delude itself about where Obama stands in the polls. Juicing the polls to paint a picture you want to see is, I guess, reassuring today. But, they will wake up with one hell of a hangover on November 7th.
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