Gallup’s Daily Tracking Poll today continues a trend we’ve seen over the last week; Obama’s support is quickly falling back to levels seen last month. The media is furiously spinning a narrative that the Romney campaign is in trouble, but it is the President’s support that is dropping in the Gallup poll. Today, Obama lost another 2 points in his approval rating, while his disapproval also moved up 2 points. Obama and Romney are tied at 47% support.
Obama has lost 7 points in just one week. He has lost about 6 points in his approval rating and is now underwater, with 48% of voters disapproving of the job he is doing, against 46% who approve.
In the past 48 hours, the media have flooded the political zone with a number of new national and swing state polls, all purportedly showing a clear movement to Obama. Skepticism is in order, though, as all of these polls use partisan samples that assume Democrats will have an equal or greater share of the electorate than in 2008. That may help the media sleep at night, but it isn’t going to happen.
The Gallup number is particularly noteworthy because Romney continues to gain ground while under a full media assault about a supposedly flailing campaign. Meanwhile Obama, whom the media have already anointed the winner, is losing support. We often joke that the media live in a bubble. It seems that bubble is completely disconnected from the real world.
Gallup’s poll is a 7-day rolling average, so about half its sample comes after the release of Romney’s controversial “47%” comments. It is possible that Romney’s support may edge down a bit as the sample fully reflects those remarks. But, if the remarks are that damaging and half the sample was taken after those remarks, then the fact that he is gaining ground suggests he was surging prior to the remarks.
That certainly doesn’t sound like a troubled, losing campaign. If Romney keeps having weeks like the last three, he will have to start measuring the drapes in the Oval Office.
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