Media Malpractice: NYT Poll Pushes Absurd Democratic Turnout Model

In what could be considered nothing short of media malpractice, the New York Times and CBS News published three state polls by Quinnipiac University that shows Democratic advantages in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania at levels never before seen.

The allegedly scientific poll is said to give a clear idea of how the election might turnout if it were held today. But the published turnout assumes Democrats will outnumber Republicans by 33% in Florida and Ohio, while the advantage jumps by 40% in Pennsylvania.

Not surprisingly - despite their own data showing he is losing Independents in both FL and OH (PA data not released) - Obama is "clearly ahead" of Romney in all three states. And they say it isn't even close. Yep, even though he is losing the Independents he won handily in 2008, Obama is actually winning these swing states by more than double the margin he did then. Make sense?

In 2010, Republican's had a 1 point edge in turnout in Ohio, an even advantage in Florida, and just a 3 point deficit in Pennsylvania. Over the last 8 years, Democratic turnout has averaged just 1 point higher in Ohio and 4 points higher in Pennsylvania, while Republican turnout has averaged 1 point higher than Democratic turnout.

Instead, the NYT/CBS poll has expected turnout in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania at D +9, D +9, and D +11 points, respectively. All of these results are well outside the 8 year averages of R +1 (FL), D +1 (OH), and D +4 (PA), and even show marked improvements in Democratic turnout over 2008, a historically Democratic year. The poll data show ties, but the media reports Obama blowouts in all three states.

Yesterday, Mike Flynn had this to say about about outrageous media polls acting as the newest form of  campaign ad:

Every election features something new, an evolution from past campaigns. This year's development is troubling. Polls are now being used, not simply to gauge the state of the race, but to impact the race. We're not far off from the day that the New York Times or CBS will have to file their polls as in-kind contributions to the Democrats.

The New York Times and CBS have a contribution filing to report this morning.


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