ADP Survey Shows Improvement, Continued Weakness in Job Market
The ADP survey of businesses released Wednesday show private employers added 188k jobs in June. The number is up from the 134k jobs ADP reported were added in May. It is also above the 150k added jobs economists were expecting. The report is viewed as a guidepost for the critical June jobs report, which will be released by the Labor Department on Friday.
In early June, the Labor Department reported that the economy added 175k jobs in May. This month, economists are expecting a slight dip to 165k added jobs in June.
The economy generally needs to add around 200k jobs a month, just to keep pace with population growth. An amount less than that would generally cause the unemployment rate to increase, unless their is corresponding increase in the number of people leaving the labor force. The unemployment rate has ticked down in recent months because a record low percentage of adults are in the job market looking for work.
From November through February, the economy added an average of 200k jobs a month. The last three months, however, have been far below that trend.
Recent economic data has been very mixed. This makes Friday's jobs report an important indicator of the true state of the economy. There is usually an up-tick in jobs in May and June, as many seasonal and tourist industries add staff for the Summer holiday season.
Friday's report will tell us whether we finally get the long-promised "Recovery Summer" or if the "Summer Bummer" trend continues.