Presidential Polls Find Ohio Neck and Neck

The latest round of Ohio polling from NBC News / The Wall Street Journal / Marist and Emerson find a dead heat in the presidential race, with Donald Trump 1 point ahead in one poll, while Hillary Clinton leads by 2 points in the other.

Both polls cover the same span of time, October 10 through October 12, and have roughly comparable sample sizes. In both cases, the lead is much smaller than the margin of error, producing a statistical tie.

NBC/WSJ/Marist sees Ohio as Trump 42 percent, Clinton 41 percent. Libertarian Gary Johnson gets 9 percent support, while the Green Party’s Jill Stein has 4 percent. Removing Johnson and Stein from the equation produces a Trump-Clinton tie at 45 percent each.

The Emerson College survey says Clinton has pulled into the lead in Ohio, with 45 percent to Trump’s 43 percent. Johnson gets 7 percent, and Stein 2 percent in this poll.

Emerson attributes Clinton’s lead to increasingly negative approval numbers for Trump, producing a 10-point shift among independent voters. However, Trump is still leading 42 percent to 35 percent among independents.

Both of these polls find incumbent Republican Senator Rob Portman with a commanding lead over his challenger, former Governor Ted Strickland — 18 points for NBC/WSJ/Marist, 17 points for Emerson.


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