A new Emerson Poll released on Monday shows that conservative Republican Roy Moore has increased his lead over liberal Democrat Doug Jones to 9 points, 53 percent to 44 percent, in tomorrow’s special election for the Alabama’s U.S. Senate seat once held by current Attorney General Jeff Sessions.
Write-in candidate Lee Busby has the support of 4 percent of poll respondents.
The poll results were announced in this tweet early Monday morning:
Shocking new @EmersonCollege POLL: @realDonaldTrump endorsement making huge impact as #RoyMoore is now in great position for Tuesday #ALSen election | DETAILS -> https://t.co/kIZpidCZJC pic.twitter.com/OJKRX63S7U
— Emerson Polling (@EmersonPolling) December 11, 2017
The poll of 600 very likely voters was conducted between December 7 and December 9 and has a 3.9 percent margin of error.
“A major event that might have contributed to Moore’s improved poll numbers is his endorsement by President Trump this past weekend. The President is more popular than either candidate with a 55%/40% favorable/unfavorable rating. Moore is at 45%/45% and Jones is at 43%/45%,” the Emerson College Polling Society said in a press release on Monday.
“Since the Emerson Poll of Nov. 12, a few days after allegations of sexual misconduct, Moore’s lead dropped from 10 points to 6 points Nov. 26 and to 3 points last week on Dec. 3,” the press release noted.
“What we’ve noticed is Moore’s favorabilities have really risen over the past three weeks,” Emerson College professor and polling director Spencer Kimball said in a podcast on Monday.
“Most likely it is this Trump endorsement. Trump is very favorable in Alabama . .. He carries some coattails. I would most likely give that the reason why Moore has been able to extend his lead up to 9,” the Emerson College professor said.
“Based on the polling…we’re 95 percent confident that Moore will win on election day,” Kimball stated, adding that “we’ld be more confident of Moore winning by 15 percent than of Jones pulling off the upset.”
“It’s very difficult to see a pathway… for [Jones] to pull off the upset,” Kimball concluded.
A subsequent tweet by the Emerson College Polling Society later Monday morning noted that “All eyes (and ears) are on Alabama.”
All eyes (and ears) are on #Alabama not just here at Emerson, but all around the world.
Huge race …
— Emerson Polling (@EmersonPolling) December 9, 2017
The latest Real Clear Politics Average of Polls shows Moore with a 4.7 point lead with voting set to begin in Alabama in less than 24 hours.