Hyper-Accurate Election Model Still Predicts a Donald Trump Victory

Professor Helmut Norpoth is insisting his prediction of a Donald Trump electoral victory will be vindicated by the polls Tuesday night.

From the New York Post:

Moody’s Analytics, which has picked the next president every year since 1980, says Clinton will make history as the first female chief executive, trouncing Trump with 332 electoral votes.

That runs in sharp contrast to a model created by Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor at Stony Brook University, that’s predicting Trump will be running the country.

Norpoth is sticking by the results of his model — which has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1912, with the exception of 2000 — despite most polls showing Clinton ahead by at least 3 percentage points.

“If [Clinton] was leading by 10 or 20 points, I would say this is not going to be my year, but I don’t see it,” he told The Post. “It’s so close. It’s certainly do-able [for him], even when you look at the polls.”

Read the rest of the story here.


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